Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY)

• Price dropped from 3.75 to 3.7 by 12:00 ET, reflecting bearish momentum on the 15-minute chart.
• Volume spiked above 18k units during a late-night rally attempt, but failed to sustain gains.
• Low volatility observed with Bollinger Bands narrowing before the early morning sell-off.
• RSI hovered near oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Notional turnover reached $60,000+ as price declined toward Turkish Lira support levels.

The Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) pair opened at 3.75 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.7 by 12:00 ET on October 27. Price action saw a bearish consolidation with a 24-hour high of 3.8 and low of 3.68. Total volume was approximately 77,788.6 units, while notional turnover exceeded 60,000 Turkish Lira.

On the 15-minute chart, price behavior showed a clear bearish bias, with the first candle forming a bearish engulfing pattern. Price found temporary resistance at 3.75 and support at 3.72–3.73. A key bearish divergence appeared in the MACD as it crossed below the signal line, indicating weakening bullish momentum. RSI approached oversold levels but failed to trigger a strong reversal, suggesting bearish exhaustion may not yet be in play. A 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period MA early in the session, reinforcing the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands remained relatively narrow for much of the session, indicating low volatility, followed by a widening after the 0215 ET time, as a large-volume candle drove price to 3.78. However, this failed to hold, and a sharp sell-off followed before 0700 ET. Fibonacci retracements on the key 3.75–3.73 move suggest 3.72 and 3.70 as possible next targets if the bearish trend persists.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the daily chart suggest further bearish pressure is likely if the current level of 3.7 fails to hold. Volume spiked during the late-night rally but failed to confirm a sustained recovery, pointing to potential short-term weakness. The key 3.70 level is now in focus, and a break below that could accelerate the downward move.

Backtest Hypothesis
The recent bearish divergence in the MACD suggests a backtesting strategy could be built around MACD Golden Cross and Death Cross signals. Given the current downward trend, a Death Cross (MACD line crossing below the signal line) would signal a sell or short opportunity. If a Golden Cross had occurred earlier in the week, it may have falsely signaled a buying opportunity. A backtest using this logic with a 1-week holding period would require accurate MACD data for the ticker in question. The data issue encountered with “HOLD.P” prevents running this backtest at the moment, but for a recognized symbol, this strategy could be implemented effectively.