Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY)

• POLYXTRY surged 38.2% in 24 hours, closing at 5.74 TRY after a sharp 15-minute spike to 6.00.
• Strong bullish momentum seen in MACD and RSI, with volume spiking above 100k in final hours.
• Bollinger Bands show increasing volatility, with price reaching upper band at 6.00.
• A large bullish engulfing pattern emerged post-12:00 ET, confirming short-term strength.
• Divergence seen in early morning volume vs. price, suggesting consolidation before further move.

The Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) pair opened at 5.44 TRY on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 6.00 TRY, and closed at 5.74 TRY by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The 24-hour trading period saw significant volume activity, totaling approximately 1,692,799.9, with a notional turnover of over 9,000,000 TRY. The pair exhibited a strong bullish bias, marked by a large 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern and a clear upward shift in sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified at 5.44 TRY and 5.5 TRY, both of which held during early morning consolidation. The price then surged past 5.64 TRY and extended toward the daily high of 6.00 TRY. A strong bullish engulfing pattern formed in the 12:00 ET candle, confirming a breakout from a prior consolidation phase. A small doji appeared at 6.00 TRY, signaling potential exhaustion or a pause before a continuation. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 5.72 TRY was briefly tested before a continuation higher.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA moved up sharply from 5.55 to 5.75 TRY, supporting the bullish bias. The 50-period MA was slightly below the close at 5.68 TRY. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs were not available for 2025-09-16, but the 100-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in the previous session, indicating a bullish crossover. Price closed above all major MAs on the 15-minute chart.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a sharp positive divergence, with the histogram expanding as price surged. The signal line crossed above the MACD line around 10:00–11:00 ET, confirming a bullish crossover. RSI spiked to 75–77 during the high-volume rally, entering overbought territory. This suggests strong momentum but also a potential near-term correction. RSI is currently at 68, indicating sustained upward pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly as the price surged, reaching the upper band at 6.00 TRY. This volatility expansion aligns with the bullish engulfing pattern and confirms increased buying interest. Price remained within the bands for most of the session but pushed to the upper boundary at the peak. A contraction in band width occurred in the early morning, suggesting consolidation before the breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased dramatically from near-zero in the early morning to over 169,000 at the 12:15 ET candle. Turnover peaked at 1,692,799.9 in the 12:15–12:30 ET window. The volume-to-price correlation was strong during the 11:00–12:30 ET period, indicating genuine buying pressure rather than a wash trade. A minor divergence appeared at 12:45 ET when volume dipped slightly despite a continued price rise, suggesting potential profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% retracement level at 5.60 TRY was quickly breached, followed by a test of the 61.8% level at 5.72 TRY. The price moved beyond this level and closed at 5.74 TRY, indicating strong continuation potential. A 61.8% retracement at 5.80 TRY was briefly touched during the final hours, but it failed to hold. This suggests the bulls remain in control and that the next key level to watch is 5.84 TRY.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish engulfing pattern and the confirmation from volume and momentum indicators, a backtesting strategy could be constructed to enter long at the open of the candle following the engulfing pattern, with a stop below the low of the engulfing pattern and a target at 61.8% of the subsequent swing. A trailing stop could be initiated once the price exceeded the 5.74–5.76 TRY range, locking in gains as the move unfolds. This approach would aim to capture the continuation of the upward trend while managing risk with a defined stop and dynamic exit.