Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY)

• Price dropped from 5.57 to 5.48 over 24 hours, forming bearish momentum
• High volume spike at 5.54 suggests key support/resistance testing
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, but bearish divergence remains
• Volatility remained compressed until late ET with sharp break below 5.5
• Bollinger Bands constricting ahead of potential breakout

Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 5.57 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 5.58, a low of 5.44, and closed at 5.48 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 110,164.7 units, with a notional turnover of 600,525.2 TRY.

Structure & Formations

POLYXTRY experienced a bearish reversal after consolidating between 5.54 and 5.57 for much of the day. A key bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 5.54–5.56 in early ET, followed by a strong breakdown below 5.5 at 19:45 ET on 2025-09-10. A long bearish shadow at 5.52–5.48 at 13:30 ET signaled continued selling pressure. The price found a temporary floor at 5.48 but failed to reclaim key psychological levels like 5.5.

Support/Resistance

Key support levels observed include 5.48 and 5.5 (tested multiple times). Resistance levels at 5.54 and 5.57 were repeatedly rejected, with bears maintaining control below 5.5.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed price below all key MAs, with the 20-period MA at 5.52 and the 50-period MA at 5.53. The 100-period and 200-period daily MAs were aligned near 5.5, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed below the signal line at 5.50–5.48, confirming bearish momentum. RSI fell to 30–32 in the last few hours, suggesting oversold conditions, but a bearish divergence persisted as price made lower lows while RSI did not.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands constricted significantly between 5.54 and 5.57 for most of the day before a sharp breakdown below the lower band at 5.48. This breakout occurred with strong volume, suggesting a possible continuation of bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 5.54 with a 37,635.7-unit trade, indicating aggressive selling pressure. Turnover also surged at that level, confirming the breakdown. However, subsequent volume diminished near 5.48, suggesting a potential short-term floor.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent bearish swing from 5.58 to 5.44, the 38.2% level is at 5.53 and the 61.8% at 5.48. Price found a temporary floor at 5.48, aligning with the 61.8% retracement, suggesting a potential bounce or continuation lower in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a breakdown below the 5.48 Fibonacci level, with a stop just above the 5.54 resistance zone and a target at 5.44. A long entry could be triggered on a rejection at 5.48 with confirmation by volume and RSI divergence. The strategy would benefit from a daily time frame, given the strong consolidation observed.