Market Overview: Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) 24-Hour Analysis

• POLYXTRY opened at 4.85 and closed at 4.79, declining 1.22% amid a volatile 24-hour session with a high of 4.87 and low of 4.76.
• Volume surged past 100,000 units in the late ET session but failed to confirm a bullish breakout, while turnover remained mixed.
• A key support level emerged near 4.76, with a potential resistance retest at 4.82–4.83 ahead of a larger 4.85–4.87 range.
• RSI showed overbought conditions early but drifted neutral by close, while MACD signaled bearish divergence late in the day.
• Volatility expanded during active trading hours but contracted in the overnight session, hinting at consolidation ahead.

The Polymesh/Turkish Lira pair (POLYXTRY) opened at 4.85 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4.79 at the same time the next day. The 24-hour range reached a high of 4.87 and a low of 4.76, with total volume exceeding 100,000 units and a notional turnover of approximately 479,000 TRL. The price declined 1.22% over the 24-hour period, reflecting a bearish bias amid mixed momentum signals.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a mixed formation throughout the session, with bearish breakdowns below key resistance levels at 4.82–4.83. A morning rally briefly tested 4.86 before retreating, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. A key support level appears to have formed near 4.76 after a sharp decline in the overnight session. A doji at 4.76 and the subsequent consolidation suggest buyers may be testing this level for validity. A potential breakout above 4.85–4.87 could resume the bullish trend, but current momentum appears bearish.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 15-minute chart showed the price closing below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish momentum. The daily timeframe also revealed the 50-period moving average crossing below the 200-period line, suggesting a potential bearish trend. The MACD histogram turned negative in the late session, indicating weakening bullish momentum. RSI drifted into neutral territory after an early overbought signal, suggesting momentum is fading.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility increased during active trading hours, with the price reaching the upper Bollinger Band at 4.87 before retreating. The bands later contracted in the overnight session, indicating potential consolidation ahead. The price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting bearish pressure. If the 4.76 level holds, it could trigger a rebound, but a break below it would signal a deeper correction.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the late ET hours, especially around 19:00–21:00 ET, when the price tested 4.86 and retreated. The high volume during this period failed to confirm a breakout, indicating possible distribution. Turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the activity. A divergence appears between price and volume in the late session, with the price dropping while volume remained elevated, signaling possible bearish exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent swing from 4.87 to 4.76 highlight a 38.2% retracement at 4.82 and a 61.8% retracement at 4.79, which aligns with the current price. These levels are critical for short-term direction, with a break above 4.82 likely to trigger a retest of 4.85–4.87. A close below 4.76 would target the next Fibonacci level at 4.73, which could be a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy involving a 15-minute timeframe, using a combination of RSI (14) and a 20-period moving average crossover, could be used to validate entry signals during volatile sessions like today. The setup would involve entering a short position when RSI enters overbought territory and the price closes below the 20-period MA, with a stop-loss above the most recent high. Given today's action, this setup could have captured the decline from 4.86 to 4.79. Future testing should evaluate the strategy’s performance during similar divergence events.