Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY): 24-Hour Analysis

• Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 4.99 and closed at 4.92, with a 24-hour low of 4.83 and high of 4.97.
• A sharp decline from 4.97 to 4.83 occurred during overnight trading, followed by a consolidation phase.
• Volume surged during the 23:45 ET and 04:15 ET sessions, indicating heightened activity during key price moves.
• The RSI dipped into oversold territory in the early hours before recovering, suggesting temporary bearish momentum.
• Price remains within a 4.83–4.97 range; a breakout could signal the next directional move.

At 12:00 ET–1, Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 4.99 and closed at 4.92, with a 24-hour high of 4.97 and low of 4.83. Total trading volume across the period was 33,268.0 units, while total notional turnover amounted to approximately 162,687 TRY (assuming average price of ~4.90). The price action displayed a sharp bearish impulse during overnight trading, followed by a period of consolidation in the early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The most notable formations occurred during the 23:45 ET and 04:15 ET sessions, where the price dropped from 4.89 to 4.83 and from 4.96 to 4.95, respectively. These moves resemble bearish engulfing patterns, especially the 23:45 ET session where the candle closed well below the open. A potential key support level appears at 4.83, where the price briefly traded and found some buying interest. Resistance levels are currently forming at 4.93–4.94 and 4.96–4.97, which were tested multiple times during the session. A breakout above 4.97 would indicate a reversal of recent bearish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages suggest a bearish crossover, with the 50-period MA pulling ahead of the 20-period MA. This reinforces the short-term downward trend. On a daily scale, the 50-period MA appears to be acting as a dynamic resistance, while the 100-period MA is slightly below the current price, indicating that the long-term trend remains neutral to bearish. The price is below both the 50 and 100-period MAs, which may signal continued pressure toward 4.83 or lower if the trend persists.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory for most of the session, with the MACD line dipping below the signal line during the sharp decline. A weak bearish crossover occurred during the 00:00 ET–00:15 ET session, followed by a bearish divergence in the early hours of the morning. The RSI reached oversold levels at 30 during the 00:00–01:00 ET period but failed to generate a strong bounce, suggesting bearish continuation is more likely. Momentum appears to be weakening as the RSI remains near the midpoint, indicating a potential consolidation phase ahead.

The MACD histogram has been shrinking in magnitude, which suggests that the bearish momentum is losing steam. However, the RSI has not shown signs of overbought conditions, and the price remains below key psychological levels, which may indicate further downside is still possible.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described utilizes a combination of MACD and RSI for entry and exit signals, specifically targeting short-term bearish setups. A long-term moving average crossover on the daily chart is used as a filter to ensure the broader trend is not bullish. The recent bearish MACD crossover and RSI oversold reading during the 00:00–01:00 ET period align with the backtest conditions. However, the lack of a strong bounce and subsequent consolidation suggest the strategy may have entered near a potential reversal point. A successful exit would depend on a follow-through move below 4.83 and a close below 4.80. The next 24 hours will be crucial for confirming whether the bearish bias is valid or if a reversal is forming.