Market Overview: Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) on 2025-10-14

• Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) posted a 24-hour closing decline of 16.6% from 4.15 to 3.83.
• A sharp bearish move in early hours followed by consolidation near 3.83–3.85 suggests oversold conditions.
• RSI dropped below 30, indicating potential near-term bounce from support at 3.79–3.83.
• Bollinger Bands tightened mid-session, hinting at a possible breakout or reversal.
• Volume surged during the morning sell-off but faded in the latter half, signaling waning momentum.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 4.15 on 2025-10-13 and closed at 3.83 on 2025-10-14, with a high of 4.15 and low of 3.75 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 70,696.4 units, while turnover amounted to approximately 272,642.00 TRY. The price action reflects a sharp sell-off early in the session, followed by a consolidation phase around key support levels.

Structure & Formations

A significant bearish gap and large red candle at 01:00 ET marked the initial leg of the decline, closing at 4.12. This was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 05:45 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. Later in the session, a bullish harami around 12:15 ET and a hammer at 13:15 ET hinted at short-covering and potential near-term support. A key support level appears to be forming around 3.81–3.83, with resistance clustering at 3.90–3.93.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) crossed below key price levels early in the morning, reinforcing the bearish bias. By midday, price remained below both averages, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands narrowed in the early afternoon, suggesting a potential breakout or reversal event. The price closed near the lower band at 3.83, a sign of high volatility and potential oversold conditions.

Momentum and Volatility Signals

Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 30 during the morning sell-off, indicating oversold territory and a possible near-term bounce. The MACD crossed below the signal line and remained negative, supporting the bearish outlook. Volatility surged during the initial leg of the decline but faded in the latter half of the session, indicating waning conviction in the downward move.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked sharply during the early morning sell-off (around 4:15–5:15 ET), reaching over 33,989 units in a single 15-minute interval. This volume confirmed the bearish breakout and signaled significant short-term positioning. In the latter part of the session, volume dried up, with several 15-minute intervals showing no trade, indicating reduced participation and potential exhaustion of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 4.15 high to the 3.75 low show the 3.83–3.85 range aligning with the 61.8% retracement level. A rebound off this level could target the 39.2% retracement at 3.90–3.93 in the near term, though a breakdown below 3.79 would confirm further bearish potential.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy applied over the same period showed a total return of 7.8%, albeit with an annualized return of only 3.1%. The strategy appears to have captured some of the downward momentum early in the session but struggled to sustain gains during the consolidation phase. A maximum drawdown of 19.6% and a low Sharpe ratio of 0.21 suggest the strategy may not be robust enough for standalone use, especially in volatile environments like this one. While the bearish move confirmed by volume and price patterns was captured, the consolidation and sideways bias limited long-term returns, highlighting the importance of refining entry and exit signals in future iterations.