Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) – 2025-10-12

• POLYXTRY opened at 3.66 and closed at 3.65 with a 24-h high of 3.78 and low of 3.53
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern followed by a bearish breakdown and retest
• RSI hit overbought and oversold levels, indicating diverging momentum
• Volatility expanded after a consolidation phase, with volume surging during key swings
• Bollinger Bands reflected a recent contraction followed by a sharp breakout in the last 4 hours

The Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) pair opened at 3.66 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET and closed at 3.65 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 3.78 and a low of 3.53. Total traded volume was 33,141.3 units, while the notional turnover amounted to approximately 119,547.2 TRY, based on the provided 15-minute OHLCV data.

Structure & Formations suggest a volatile session with a sharp drop in the early evening (ET) followed by a gradual recovery and a late-day bullish breakout. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the first hour of the day, followed by a bearish breakdown below a key intraday support at 3.65. The price retested this level multiple times, forming a series of doji and indecisive candles, signaling a possible equilibrium in buyer-seller balance. A sharp rally in the late afternoon ET culminated in a bullish breakout above the 3.70–3.78 range, suggesting a potential short-term reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment.

Moving Averages on the 15-minute chart would show the 20-period MA around 3.62 and the 50-period MA at 3.64, indicating a bullish crossover as of the close. The daily chart would reflect a broader bearish bias with the 50/100/200-day MAs likely in a descending order, highlighting a longer-term bearish bias despite the intraday rally.

MACD showed a positive divergence in the final hours of the session, confirming the bullish breakout, while the RSI fluctuated between overbought and oversold conditions, peaking above 70 at 3.78 and dropping below 30 at 3.53. This suggests a volatile and momentum-driven session with no clear direction from early to midday, followed by a strong reversal. The price has now entered a range that could see retests of key psychological levels at 3.70 and 3.65. Bollinger Bands reflected a prior contraction between 3.64–3.66, followed by a sharp expansion during the breakout, indicating a potential continuation or pullback phase in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements applied to the 3.53–3.78 swing show a 61.8% level at 3.66 and a 38.2% level at 3.69, both of which were tested in the final hours. A close above 3.69 could suggest continuation of the bullish trend, while a retest of 3.66 may confirm a short-term consolidation phase. Given the volume and price action, traders may look for long entries above 3.66 with a stop below 3.64 and initial targets at 3.70 and 3.75.

Volume and turnover saw significant increases during the late afternoon ET rally, with the most significant spike occurring around the 3.62–3.68 range. The volume during this period was approximately 2862.7 units, with a corresponding turnover of around 10,182.7 TRY. This suggests strong conviction behind the bullish move, though it also highlights the risk of a possible pullback due to exhaustion of buying pressure. Price and volume did not show any major divergence, supporting the idea that the move was backed by real buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis: A strategy that goes long on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close above the 3.66 level and holds until a retest of the 3.64 support or a bearish reversal candle could be considered. This approach would leverage the breakout and retest dynamics observed, with entry at 3.66, stop-loss below 3.64, and targets at 3.70 and 3.75. A short-term bearish bias may emerge if the price fails to hold above 3.66 and closes below 3.64 again, especially if volume increases on the bearish move.