Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) on 2025-10-09

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• Price opened at 4.79 and reached a high of 4.88 before dropping to 4.69, closing at 4.76 near the session’s lower end.
• A strong bearish reversal occurred post-4.88 peak, marked by a large-volume bearish candle (4.88 to 4.71).
• Volume surged at key reversal points but declined significantly in the final hours, suggesting consolidation.
• RSI entered oversold territory near the close, hinting at potential short-term bounce, while Bollinger Bands widened on the breakdown.
• Fibonacci retracements show 4.72–4.74 as key support clusters with 4.85–4.86 as near-term resistance.

Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 4.79 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET, touched a high of 4.88, a low of 4.69, and closed at 4.76 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 93,991.7, with a notional turnover of ~466,791.1 (volume × price). Price action shows a sharp bearish breakdown from the 4.88 level.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bearish reversal pattern near 4.88, with a large-volume candle closing at 4.71. A key support cluster emerged between 4.72 and 4.74, where multiple 15-minute candles found temporary bottoming action. The 4.76 level appears to be a short-term equilibrium point, with no significant bullish candlestick patterns emerging during the last 6 hours.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a bearish bias, with price closing below both. On a daily scale, the 50- and 100-period moving averages align with the 4.74–4.75 range, reinforcing its significance as short-term support.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed bearish divergence early in the breakdown, with a bearish crossover at the time of the 4.88 high. RSI dipped into oversold territory near the 4.71 low, signaling potential for a minor rebound, though the broader momentum remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly following the breakdown from 4.88, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands widening to accommodate the 4.69 low. Price currently rests near the lower band at 4.76, suggesting a potential bounce or consolidation is likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 4.88–4.71 breakdown, particularly during the 15-minute candle at 2025-1009 03:00 ET (4.72 to 4.72). However, in the final 6 hours, volume dried up significantly, indicating waning bearish conviction. Turnover diverged with price during the last 2 hours, raising the possibility of a near-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 4.88–4.69 swing, key levels include 4.74 (61.8%) and 4.72 (78.6%), which have held as short-term support. A retest of the 4.85–4.86 (38.2%) level may offer resistance in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the breakdown from the 4.88 level on strong volume and the RSI entering oversold territory, a potential short-term mean-reversion strategy could be tested. This would involve entering a long position at the close of the 15-minute candle at 2025-1009 15:45 ET (4.71) with a stop-loss below 4.69 and a target near 4.75–4.76. The rationale is that the oversold RSI, combined with the consolidation at 4.74–4.75 and Fibonacci support, increases the likelihood of a bounce in the next 12–24 hours.