Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) – 2025-10-05

• POLYXTRY rose 10.4% in 24 hours, closing near a key bullish breakout.
• Momentum accelerated in final hours, with strong volume on the breakout.
• Price held above 4.95, indicating short-term support strength.
• Bollinger Band contraction suggested low volatility before the upsurge.
• RSI reached overbought territory, flagging potential short-term correction.

The Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) pair opened at 4.91 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.0 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 5.12 and a low of 4.91. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 89,581.9 POLY and a turnover of approximately 447,909 Turkish Lira. Price action showed a decisive bullish breakout toward the end of the cycle.

Structure & Formations

Price remained tightly consolidated for most of the session before a sharp upward move in the early hours of 2025-10-05. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 02:45 ET on the 15-minute chart, confirming a reversal from a 4.92 support level. The formation was reinforced by a subsequent higher high and higher close, indicating strong buyer control. A key resistance at 5.05 was cleared with volume, followed by a push to 5.12, where a long upper shadow formed, signaling some near-term profit-taking.

A minor bearish divergence appeared after the 5.12 high, with price retreating to 5.04 by 09:45 ET. This could suggest a test of the 5.05–5.06 level as a potential short-term ceiling. Key support levels to monitor include 4.95 and 4.92, with a breakdown below 4.92 likely to trigger a retest of the 4.91 low.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both crossed to the upside during the breakout phase, confirming a strong reversal in trend. By the end of the 24-hour period, price was comfortably above both lines, indicating a continuation bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages appear to be converging, which could suggest a potential consolidation phase ahead if the 5.0 level is successfully held.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram expanded to the upside during the breakout, confirming the strength of the bullish move. The RSI reached overbought territory in the final hours, peaking near 75 before retracing slightly. This suggests short-term caution ahead and an increased likelihood of a pullback. A drop in RSI below 60 would indicate a return to neutral territory, though the overall bullish bias remains intact due to the strong volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands were narrow in the early part of the session, pointing to low volatility and a potential breakout. Price broke above the upper band around 03:15 ET, confirming the bullish move. By the end of the 24-hour period, the bands had widened significantly, and price remained near the upper band, indicating high volatility and momentum. If this trend continues, the lower band may become a support level for potential corrections.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late-night to early-morning hours of 2025-10-05, confirming the bullish breakout. The highest single 15-minute volume spike was recorded at 03:15 ET with a turnover of 1850.0 POLY. Turnover was also strong in the late morning and early afternoon, particularly around 10:15 ET and 10:45 ET. There was a notable divergence in the afternoon, with price dropping from 5.02 to 4.98 while volume remained low, suggesting lack of conviction among bears.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 4.91 to 5.12, the 61.8% level corresponds to approximately 5.06, which was indeed reached and briefly held. A retest of this level may occur as a key area to watch in the near term. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level is near 5.0, where price closed, suggesting a possible consolidation phase if the level holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be designed to exploit the bullish breakout pattern observed in this 24-hour period. Specifically, a long entry could be triggered on a close above 5.05, with a stop loss placed just below the previous low of 4.92. A take-profit target could be set at 5.12, based on the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the recent high. The surge in volume on the breakout candle provides strong confirmation for the trade signal. This strategy would benefit from being applied to similar 15-minute breakout setups with strong volume confirmation, particularly in low-volatility environments prior to the move.