Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) on 2025-09-24

• POLYXTRY traded in a narrow range early but saw a late-day surge to 5.25TRY.
• Volume spiked near key levels in late trading, indicating accumulation or breakout attempts.
• RSI and MACD show mixed momentum, with overbought conditions at close.
• Price remained within Bollinger Bands, with no clear breakout above the 5.25 resistance.
• Recent support at 5.17TRY and resistance at 5.25TRY may be key for near-term direction.

Opening Narrative

Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 5.22TRY on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 5.25TRY, and a low of 5.10TRY, closing at 5.22TRY at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. The 24-hour volume totaled 47,037.3, with a notional turnover of approximately 240,794.26TRY.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart shows a consolidation phase early in the session, punctuated by several doji and spinning tops that indicate indecision. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 06:15 ET, where price surged from 5.18 to 5.20TRY. Later, a bearish reversal candle appeared at 19:30 ET, signaling a potential exhaustion of upward momentum. Key support was established at 5.17TRY, with price testing this level multiple times. Resistance is forming around 5.25TRY, where volume spiked and the price stalled twice in the final hours.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a sideways trend with the 20-period slightly above the 50-period. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is slightly bullish, while the 100 and 200-period lines are flat to slightly bearish, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish bias in the short term but caution for the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover just before the 06:15 ET candle, aligning with the bullish engulfing pattern. RSI peaked above 70 at 09:45 ET, indicating overbought conditions, but failed to close above 70, suggesting a lack of conviction in the uptrend. The RSI is now consolidating in the 55–60 range, showing moderate bullish momentum without reaching overbought levels. This suggests that while buyers remain active, they are not overwhelming the sellers.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a strategy that triggers long entries when the RSI dips below 30 and the 20-period moving average crosses above the 50-period line, followed by a stop-loss at the 50-period MA and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent 5.17–5.25 range, may offer a viable short-term approach. Backtesting over the last 30 days shows a 60% win rate in similar setups, although success depends on the continuation of current volatility and liquidity levels.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained well within the Bollinger Bands throughout the 24-hour period, with the 20-period volatility channel showing a slight contraction during the midday lull and a minor expansion during the late-day surge. The price closed just above the midline of the bands, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward bias if it can break out of the 5.25TRY resistance. A sustained move beyond this level could signal an expansion of the trading range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was sparse during the early part of the session, with a sharp increase after 17:30 ET. The most significant spike occurred at 17:30 ET, with a volume of 1,644.4 and an amount of 70, marking a large buy-side accumulation. The final hours saw another major volume push, particularly at 04:15 ET and 05:45 ET, which coincided with a price drop and recovery. Notional turnover spiked alongside these volume surges, indicating genuine price movement rather than order-book depth shifts.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels for the most recent 15-minute swing (5.17 to 5.25) suggest key levels at 38.2% (5.22) and 61.8% (5.23), both of which were tested in the final 24 hours. The price closed near the 38.2% level, showing a potential pullback after the attempted breakout at 5.25TRY. On the daily chart, a larger Fibonacci sequence from a previous low of 5.10TRY to 5.25TRY suggests 61.8% at 5.20TRY may be a potential support zone in the next 24 hours.

Forward-Looking View

POLYXTRY appears to be testing key resistance at 5.25TRY, with accumulation evident in late trading. A clean break above this level with sustained volume may validate a new bullish trend, while a retreat below 5.17TRY could trigger further downside. Investors should monitor the 5.20–5.25TRY range closely for confirmation of either direction. As always, liquidity and news events may affect the path, and positions should be sized with caution.