Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) on 2025-09-22

• • Price fell sharply from 5.56 to 5.11, with heavy volume at the bottom.
• • RSI and MACD suggest bearish momentum, with oversold conditions near 5.10.
• • Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, signaling potential bounce.
• • Volume spiked in the 06:15–07:45 ET window, aligning with the drop to 5.11.
• • Fibonacci 61.8% level near 5.23 may act as resistance on a rebound.

Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 5.56 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.13 on 2025-09-22 at the same time, registering a sharp decline over the 24-hour period. Price reached a high of 5.56 and a low of 4.92, with total traded volume at 193,776.1 and a notional turnover of approximately 1,027,861.2 TRY. The move reflects bearish pressure across the session, particularly during the overnight to early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a strong bearish structure, with key support forming near 5.10–5.15 and resistance clustering around 5.35–5.40. A large bearish candle formed at 06:15 ET, with a 5.30 open and a 5.14 close, indicating heavy selling pressure. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing candle and a potential bearish divergence on the RSI, both signaling a continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, price fell below key moving averages, with the 20SMA and 50SMA crossing below 5.25–5.30. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA remain above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. MACD remained negative throughout the session, with RSI dropping into oversold territory near 5.11, suggesting a potential bounce but not a reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands show a significant contraction followed by a wide expansion during the 06:15–08:00 ET window, aligning with the sharp decline in price. Price closed near the lower band on the daily chart and continued to test the 5.10–5.15 support range, suggesting elevated volatility and potential for a near-term bounce.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 06:15–07:45 ET window, coinciding with the price drop to 5.11. Total volume of 193,776.1 supports the bearish move, while turnover surged from ~5.50 to ~5.11 levels. No significant divergence was observed between price and volume, which indicates strong conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 5.56–4.92 swing indicate key support at 5.25 (38.2%) and 5.13 (61.8%). Price tested the 61.8% level around 09:00 ET and bounced slightly before resuming the decline. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level at ~5.31 could become a pivotal resistance if a near-term reversal occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy suggests using a short-biased setup with a stop-loss at the 50SMA and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level during strong bearish divergences. Given today's RSI divergence and large bearish candle, this strategy could have captured the sharp decline from 5.56 to 5.11. The setup would require confirmation of a key break below the 5.15 support and a valid RSI divergence as entry signals.