Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (2025-09-25)

• Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) fell sharply by ~6.0% over 24 hours, closing at 5.0 from a high of 5.25.
• Volatility surged with price breaking below multiple support levels after 19:00 ET, ending in a bearish breakdown pattern.
• Low volume confirmed weak conviction behind the drop, but a 15-minute RSI near oversold territory suggests limited near-term downside.
• Turnover increased significantly near the bottom, indicating accumulation at lower levels.

The Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) pair opened at 5.25 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.00 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, falling to a low of 4.91 and peaking at 5.25. Over the 24-hour window, the total volume reached 44,811.2 units, and the turnover amounted to 228,656.7 Turkish Lira. The price action shows a sharp breakdown following a key support level breach around 5.13, which led to a rapid decline toward 4.91.

The structure of the candlesticks reveals several bearish signals. A long lower shadow appeared around 5.13, followed by a breakdown pattern and a bearish engulfing pattern near 5.03. These formations suggest growing bearish momentum and a potential continuation of the downward trend. Resistance appears clustered between 5.21 and 5.25, while immediate support now lies in the 4.91–5.00 range.

Moving Averages and Trend Alignment

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key price levels during the breakdown, confirming the downward shift in trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be flattening, while the 100 and 200-period MAs remain above the current price, indicating short-term bearish momentum but a potential test of medium-term support ahead.

Momentum and Volatility Indicators

The RSI on the 15-minute chart approached oversold territory near 27, suggesting limited immediate bearish momentum. The MACD histogram has turned negative and is expanding, supporting the downward move. Bollinger Bands show increasing volatility as the price moves toward the lower band, indicating a possible rebound or a continuation of the downtrend depending on volume confirmation.

Volume and Turnover Confirmation

Volume spiked significantly as the price broke below 5.13, especially between 19:00 and 20:45 ET, with a notable block trade at 5.04 (10.0 units). However, volume has been low in the past few hours despite continued price declines, indicating reduced conviction in the move. Turnover also saw a sharp increase during the breakdown but has since slowed, suggesting a temporary lull in activity.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracements from the recent 15-minute move down from 5.25 to 4.91 show 5.09 (38.2%) and 5.02 (61.8%) as potential areas of interest. The 5.02 level appears to have acted as a minor support, and a bounce from that level may indicate a short-term rebound. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from a prior up-leg is around 4.98–5.02, aligning with key support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a short-term breakout sell trade when price breaks below a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 5.13) with confirmed volume expansion. A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance (5.18–5.21), while a take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% retracement level (5.02) or lower. Traders may also consider a contrarian buy setup if the RSI nears oversold territory and volume starts to rise again, as this could signal a short-term rebound.