Market Overview for POLUSDT (2025-11-03)

• Price action saw a strong sell-off, closing 6.1% below the prior day's high
• MACD and RSI indicate bearish momentum with RSI near overbought territory at 70
• Volatility increased sharply overnight, with large-volume bearish candles
• Bollinger Bands widen in early AM ET, signaling expansion in uncertainty

POLUSDT 24-Hour Summary (12:00 ET–1 to 12:00 ET)

The POL/Tether pair opened at $0.1904 (12:00 ET–1) and reached a high of $0.1930 (00:15 ET) before closing at $0.1805 (12:00 ET). Total traded volume amounted to 35,688,990.5 units, with turnover valued at approximately $6,820,000 (using average close price of $0.190). A clear bearish bias emerged, especially after 19:30 ET, with price falling below key support levels.

Structures & Candlestick Formations

Price action displayed bearish engulfing patterns and long lower wicks between 19:30 ET and 05:00 ET, indicating strong distribution pressure. A critical support was breached at $0.1858 (02:30 ET), followed by a rapid decline into a new 24-hour low of $0.1786 (11:00 ET). A bearish pinbar at $0.1813 (04:15 ET) further signaled weakening demand.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, price has been below the 20- and 50-period EMAs for the past 8 hours, reinforcing a bearish tilt. The daily chart suggests a potential crossover of the 50-period EMA below the 200-period SMA, which could intensify the downward trend. MACD lines diverged sharply from price between 05:00 and 08:00 ET, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. RSI rose into overbought territory briefly at 70 before reversing sharply lower.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility began to expand after 23:45 ET as price broke below the lower band. The bands widened significantly during the 12-hour overnight session, reaching a 24-hour peak width of ~0.0065 at 06:00 ET. Price retested the midline at $0.1855 at 08:00 ET but failed to hold, indicating continued bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price found key resistance at 0.1909 (38.2%) and 0.1919 (61.8%) before breaking decisively to the downside. On the daily chart, the 0.618 retracement level at $0.1870 failed to hold, reinforcing bearish sentiment for the next 24 hours.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Volume surged dramatically between 03:15 ET and 04:15 ET, with the 03:15 candle alone seeing 1.5 million units traded as price fell from $0.1841 to $0.1809. A notable divergence appears between price and volume after 07:00 ET, with volume tapering off despite continued price declines, hinting at potential exhaustion.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

The next 24 hours may see POLUSDT test the $0.1760–$0.1780 range, with a possible rebound off this level if buyers emerge. However, given the current bearish momentum and volume dynamics, further downside cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain cautious of any short-term overbought conditions and consider stop-losses if long positions are held.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate a trading approach, we can backtest a momentum-based strategy using a recognized RSI-14 signal. For this, we need a confirmed trading pair that the data service recognizes—such as “MATICUSDT,” “POLSUSDT,” or another symbol—and a specified exchange (e.g., Binance, KuCoin). Once provided, we can extract RSI data from January 1, 2022, to today, flag overbought conditions (RSI > 70) as sell signals, or oversold conditions (RSI < 30) as buy signals. The strategy would then simulate trades, holding positions for 3 days, or exiting at predefined stop-loss or take-profit levels. This would allow for the evaluation of historical profitability and risk-adjusted returns—offering insight into how well such a signal may have functioned in live conditions.