Market Overview for Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) – September 26, 2025

• Price dropped to a 24-hour low of $3.771 before rebounding to close near $3.821
• Notable bearish momentum seen mid-cycle with a 4.6% decline from high to low
• Bollinger Band contraction suggests waning volatility, but divergence in volume and price hints at potential reversal
• RSI remains below 40, signaling ongoing bearish pressure, but no oversold territory
• MACD histogram turned positive in final hours, suggesting short-term bullish momentum

Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) opened at $3.936 on September 25 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.821 on September 26 at the same time, with a 24-hour high of $3.938 and low of $3.771. The price action saw a 2.9% decline over the period, with a total volume of 15,318,395.92 DOT and a notional turnover of $58,446,807.06.

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish reversal pattern forming during the early hours of the trading window, especially between 17:30 and 18:30 ET, where DOTUSDT dropped 3.7% in a single hour. The subsequent rally was supported by volume increases, particularly in the 00:30 to 02:00 ET window, suggesting short-term buying interest. Key support levels appear to have formed at $3.82 and $3.79, both of which held during the rebound phase.

Structure & Formations

The chart structure reveals a bearish continuation with a strong breakdown from an earlier resistance level around $3.85. The formation of a bearish engulfing pattern at $3.935 to $3.926 in the 16:30 ET hour marked the beginning of a sustained downward move. Later in the session, a bullish hammer pattern emerged at $3.826, which could serve as a short-term reversal signal. Additionally, a doji formed near $3.825, reinforcing the idea that sellers may be losing control as the session progressed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, confirming the bearish bias. The price frequently traded below the 50-period MA, indicating short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sat above the 200-period MA, suggesting a medium-term bullish trend may still be in place despite the recent short-term weakness. This divergence between short- and medium-term indicators suggests a potential retest of key support levels could precede a rebound.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into negative territory at the start of the session and remained bearish until around 01:00 ET. The histogram began to show signs of flattening and even turned slightly positive in the final hours, indicating a potential shift in momentum. The RSI fell below 40 early on, remaining in bearish territory for much of the session but avoided oversold levels. The RSI’s failure to reach below 30 suggests that the move lower may not be a deep correction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant contraction in the middle of the session, signaling a period of low volatility, followed by a moderate expansion as price approached the lower band. The price briefly touched the lower Bollinger Band at $3.771 before bouncing off, suggesting strong support. The current price is well above the lower band and appears to be entering a phase of retesting the centerline, indicating a potential reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early hours of the session, particularly between 17:30 and 18:30 ET, with over 347,016.37 DOT traded in a single 15-minute interval. The increase in volume was not matched by a corresponding price rebound, signaling potential divergence. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking during the bearish phase but declining during the late-session rally. This divergence suggests that the bearish momentum may be losing strength as the session progresses.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $3.938 to $3.771, the 61.8% retracement level is at $3.853, which aligns closely with the 15-minute 50-period MA. The price has rebounded from this level and is now testing the 38.2% retracement at $3.872, which is also a key psychological level. The 23.6% retracement at $3.908 is currently acting as a resistance level, which will need to be cleared for a bullish breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical indicators and price behavior over the last 24 hours, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on the rebound off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.872, with a stop-loss placed below the 23.6% level at $3.82. A take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% retracement at $3.853 or the 50-period moving average if it acts as support. This strategy would aim to capture short-term bullish momentum while managing risk through clearly defined stop and target levels.