Market Overview for Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) - September 25, 2025

• Price action showed a sharp decline from $4.086 to $3.841, with key support forming near $3.90.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Volume spiked during the bearish move but showed divergence with price.
• Volatility expanded as the price broke below the Bollinger Bands lower channel.
• A large candle with a long lower wick appeared near $3.841, hinting at potential support.

Market Summary

Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) opened at $4.081 on September 24 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.903 at 12:00 ET on September 25. The price hit an intraday high of $4.086 and a low of $3.841. Total volume for the 24-hour period amounted to 8,873,553.23 DOT, with a notional turnover of $33,357,905.15.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a clear breakdown from the 15-minute $4.08–$4.05 resistance zone, followed by a sharp decline toward $3.90. A long lower wick on the candle at 12:30 ET (closing at $3.847) suggests rejection at this level and may signal a potential short-term support. Several bearish engulfing patterns emerged during the afternoon and evening hours, reinforcing the downward momentum. A large bullish reversal candle at 09:15 ET (closing at $3.934) indicates some buying interest but failed to sustain the rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has remained below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (at ~$4.05) acted as a resistance, while the 100-period MA (at ~$4.10) and 200-period MA (at ~$4.02) provided additional structural context, confirming the current bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has dropped to the 28–30 range, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a short-term bounce. However, the MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram and a slow-moving signal line, indicating that sellers are still in control. The divergence between RSI and price during the late-night hours suggests caution around any potential bounces.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly as the price moved below the lower Bollinger Band during the early hours of the morning. The recent break of the band to the downside implies increased bearish pressure and heightened volatility. Prices are now trading in a tighter range within the bands, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead of the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline from $4.08 to $3.90, with the highest 15-minute turnover recorded at 04:30 ET (closing at $3.930) and 08:45 ET (closing at $3.897). Notably, the price decline was accompanied by increasing turnover, confirming the bearish move. However, recent buying attempts in the $3.90–$3.93 range have occurred on lower volume, which may signal weak conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $4.086 to $3.841, key levels to watch include the 38.2% level at ~$3.955 and the 61.8% level at ~$3.931. The price briefly tested the 61.8% level during the afternoon but failed to hold, suggesting continued pressure toward the 50% level at ~$3.925 and beyond.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent breakdown and bearish technical signals, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions upon a confirmed close below the 15-minute 20-period MA, with a stop-loss placed above the nearest resistance level (~$3.955). A take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the recent low of $3.841. This approach would aim to capitalize on the continuation of the current bearish trend while managing risk through defined stop-loss levels and position sizing based on volatility metrics like ATR.