Market Overview for Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT)

• Price tested key resistance near $4.45 before retracting, signaling mixed buyer strength.
• RSI and MACD indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a pullback may be imminent.
• Volatility surged in early hours, with volume confirming price action into the mid-session.
• Bollinger Bands show recent contraction, hinting at a potential breakout.
• Fibonacci levels suggest $4.32–$4.39 as likely consolidation ranges over the next 24 hours.

The Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) pair opened at $4.433 on 2025-09-19 at 16:00 ET and closed at $4.359 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $4.463 and a low of $4.297 during the 24-hour period. Total volume for the session was 3,028,412.64, with a notional turnover of $13,145,254.17. The price action revealed a bearish bias in the latter half of the session after testing key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a bearish engulfing pattern at $4.463, confirming a reversal from the session high. A large bearish candle formed around $4.432–$4.374, signaling exhaustion in bullish momentum. A doji formed at $4.36–$4.36, indicating indecision and potential reversal near this level. Key support levels identified are at $4.351, $4.329, and $4.312, with $4.393–$4.416 forming the near-term resistance cluster.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, signaling a bearish bias. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at $4.384, while the 100-period MA is at $4.378 and the 200-period MA is at $4.361. Price is currently trading below all three, reinforcing a bearish technical setup.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line, indicating a bearish crossover and a potential continuation in the downward trend. The RSI reached overbought territory near 65–70 but has since pulled back to neutral levels, suggesting a temporary pause in the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the early part of the session before expanding again in the late hours, indicating increased volatility. Price spent the majority of the session near the lower band, suggesting bearish dominance. A breakout attempt from the lower band was unsuccessful, with price retreating to consolidation levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the early morning hours, especially around $4.463–$4.413, with a turnover of over $2.5M in a single 15-minute interval. However, volume began to taper off in the final hours, suggesting weakening bearish conviction. Price and turnover showed a positive correlation during the initial decline, but a divergence emerged in the late hours, indicating potential for a countertrend move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing high ($4.463) and low ($4.312), the key retracement levels for the 15-minute chart are at $4.393 (23.6%), $4.365 (38.2%), $4.336 (50%), $4.309 (61.8%). Price has shown signs of finding support near 61.8% and may consolidate between 50–61.8% in the coming hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a confirmed break of the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss placed above the most recent bullish candle high. A take-profit target could be set at the next Fibonacci level or key support level. This setup would have been triggered during the late morning decline, aligning with the bearish engulfing pattern and overbought RSI. The strategy would aim to capitalize on continuation moves following bearish confirmation.