Market Overview for Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined sharply from $3.448 to $3.106, with bearish momentum intensifying midday.
• Volume spiked during the downward move, confirming bearish bias and price action.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 25, suggesting potential near-term buying interest.
• Key support at $3.10–$3.12 held temporarily, but resistance above $3.20 remains untested.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Bands, indicating heightened market uncertainty.

Market Summary and Open/Close

At 12:00 ET−1, Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) opened at $3.306 and reached a high of $3.448 before plunging to a 24-hour low of $3.091. As of 12:00 ET today, the pair closed at $3.139, down from the opening level. Total 15-minute volume over the 24-hour period was 20.4 million DOT, with notional turnover reaching $61.8 million USD.

The price action was marked by a strong bearish trend, with a critical breakdown below key psychological levels of $3.30 and $3.20. The move was supported by increasing volume, particularly after 6:00 PM ET when the price fell below $3.20.

Structure & Candlestick Formations

The chart reveals a prolonged bearish bias, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming around 21:45 ET−1, confirming a shift in momentum. After this, a long lower shadow at 12:15 ET−1 failed to hold above $3.14, suggesting continued pressure on the short side. A potential triple bottom pattern formed around $3.10–$3.12, but buyers were hesitant to push the price back above $3.20.

Support levels currently to watch include $3.10–$3.12 and $3.05, with resistance at $3.20, $3.25, and $3.30. A failure to reclaim $3.20 may signal deeper bearish sentiment, while a reversal above that level could trigger a retest of $3.35–$3.40.

Key 15-Minute Levels

• 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 3.448–3.106 move: $3.25
• 38.2% Fibonacci retracement: $3.30
• 50-period EMA (15-min): $3.18
• 20-period EMA (15-min): $3.13

Indicators: MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands

The RSI has moved into oversold territory, currently at ~25, suggesting a potential rebound or consolidation phase ahead. MACD lines have crossed below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish bias with negative divergence observed in the histogram during the late afternoon sell-off.

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, reflecting increased volatility. The price is currently sitting near the lower band, indicating heightened pressure. A break above the upper band would require strong volume and a shift in market sentiment.

Volume and turnover have remained elevated during the downtrend, especially after 5:00 PM ET−1. This suggests conviction in the bearish move rather than a lack of buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

The attempt to run the sell-on-confirmation backtest encountered an issue related to the price identifier for the DOTUSDT pair. The engine could not retrieve daily prices using the provided ticker, likely due to a mismatch between the symbol format and the one used in the data source.

Historically, price databases often use symbols like DOTUSD.UDC or DOTUSDT.UDC to represent Polkadot against USD or Tether. Given the importance of accurate price data for backtesting, it is critical to confirm the correct ticker. Using the appropriate identifier will ensure the strategy can be evaluated properly, including the PnL curve, trade log, and risk metrics.

If DOTUSDT.UDC or another exchange-specific variant is the correct symbol, rerunning the backtest will allow for a more accurate assessment of the strategy’s viability. I recommend using either DOTUSDT.UDC or DOTUSD.UDC as the next steps.