Market Overview: Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) declined to a 24-hour low of $4.14 before stabilizing near $4.20.
• Momentum indicators suggest waning downward pressure with RSI approaching oversold territory.
• Volatility remained elevated, with price testing key Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band support.
• Notional turnover surged during sharp dips, hinting at potential accumulation or panic selling.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near $4.20–$4.23, signaling possible short-term reversal.

The Polkadot/Tether pair (DOTUSDT) opened at $4.29 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.206 by 12:00 ET the next day, with a high of $4.382 and a low of $4.14. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to 5,050,474.74, and notional turnover reached approximately $21.3 million. Price action showed a distinct V-shaped bounce from the $4.14 low, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming at that level, suggesting potential support.

Structure and formations revealed two key support levels at $4.20 and $4.14, both of which were tested and held during the session. A doji formed at $4.14–$4.17, indicating indecision and possible near-term consolidation. Resistance levels at $4.27 and $4.32 were retested but not broken. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated bearish momentum for most of the session, but the 50-period MA began to flatten as the price recovered toward the close.

Momentum indicators reflected mixed signals. The RSI reached an oversold level around 28 as the price hit $4.14, suggesting a potential bounce. MACD showed a narrow histogram and a flattening line, which indicated weakening bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, with the price dropping to the lower band before retracing upward. This suggests that the volatility spike was significant, but the price may be stabilizing near the lower boundary of the band.

Volume and turnover spiked during the selloff below $4.20, particularly in the candle that closed at $4.14, with over 129,000 units traded. This divergence between price and volume during the decline suggests a mix of panic selling and potential accumulation. On the rebound, volume was lighter but still consistent with prior support levels. A notable divergence between price and volume was observed near $4.23, where price rose but volume remained moderate, hinting at potential buyer exhaustion.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high of $4.382 and low of $4.14 showed the price finding support at the 61.8% level near $4.20–$4.21, reinforcing the idea that this area is a critical pivot for the near term. If the price breaks above $4.27, the next target would be the 38.2% retracement at $4.27, with the 50% retracement at $4.26 acting as a potential intermediate barrier.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern near key support levels, with a stop-loss placed below the pattern’s low. The target is the nearest Fibonacci retracement level. Over the past 24 hours, the pattern formed near $4.20–$4.23 would have triggered a long entry with a stop below $4.17. Given the RSI and MACD signals, this setup appears to have a high probability of success, particularly if the 61.8% retracement at $4.20 holds. A successful trade would aim for $4.26–$4.27, with an expected risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.5.