Market Overview: Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) – 2025-10-09 24-Hour Analysis

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• Price declined by 3.5% in 24 hours, breaking key resistance levels and forming bearish candlestick patterns.
• Volume spiked during the sell-off but diverged from price during recovery attempts after 21:00 ET.
• RSI entered oversold territory late in the session, suggesting potential short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the decline, indicating increased volatility.
• DOTUSDT traded between $4.00 and $4.23, with total 24-hour volume of 8,052,813 DOT and turnover of $30,997,000.

The 24-hour period for DOTUSDT began at 4.148 and closed at 4.004 by 12:00 ET. The price hit a high of 4.23 and a low of 3.982, reflecting a broad range of movement. Total traded volume reached approximately 8.05 million DOT, with a notional turnover of around $30.997 million. This suggests heightened market activity, particularly as the pair tested key support levels and saw a sharp pullback in the early hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish reversal pattern around the 4.23–4.20 range, with a key bearish engulfing candle forming at 19:30 ET. This was followed by a series of bearish consolidation candles between 4.20 and 4.15. A notable doji appeared at 01:45 ET near 4.128, signaling potential indecision at a critical support level. The price eventually broke below this level, forming a bearish continuation pattern. Key support levels appear to include 4.08 and 4.06, with 3.98 serving as a final near-term floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with price consistently trading below both. This reinforces a short-term bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50 and 200-period moving averages show price is well below both, indicating a medium-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish with a negative divergence in the final hours of the session, as price attempted to rebound while the MACD line remained bearish. The RSI dipped into oversold territory after 02:00 ET and remained there until the end of the 24-hour period, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, without a strong recovery, the RSI could remain in oversold territory for several hours into the next session.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp decline from 4.23 to 3.98, indicating heightened volatility. Price spent a large portion of the session trading within the lower half of the bands, especially after 03:00 ET. This suggests that sellers were in control, and buyers struggled to push the price back into the upper band. A rebound above the middle band could signal a temporary shift in momentum, but a sustained break above the upper band is unlikely without a strong catalyst.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early hours of the session, particularly between 19:00 and 20:00 ET, when the price broke down through key support levels. This volume was largely confirmatory of the bearish move. However, volume during the recovery phase after 04:00 ET was relatively muted, indicating weak buyer participation. Turnover also followed a similar pattern, with the most significant notional activity occurring during the sharp sell-off. Divergence between price and volume/turnover suggests that the short-term rebound may lack conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major 15-minute swing from 4.23 (high) to 3.982 (low), the 38.2% level sits at around 4.15 and the 61.8% level at 4.08. The price briefly rebounded near the 4.08 level, suggesting it could act as a short-term floor. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent major move is approximately 4.06, which also coincides with a key technical level that was tested and broken on October 9.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve using the RSI crossing into oversold territory (below 30) as a buy signal, combined with a bullish divergence in the MACD. The divergence between price and volume during the rebound phase suggests that while the RSI may indicate oversold conditions, the strength of the potential recovery remains uncertain. A confirmed break above 4.08 and 4.10 would provide stronger evidence of a short-term reversal, but a failure to hold above these levels could result in renewed bearish pressure. Traders may consider entering longs with a stop just below 4.06 and a target at 4.12–4.15, depending on market sentiment and broader macro conditions.