Market Overview for Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) – 2025-09-18

• Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) surged 5.6% in 24 hours, closing near its daily high after a bullish breakout above key resistance.
• Momentum accelerated in the morning ET with RSI entering overbought territory and MACD signaling bullish divergence.
• Volatility increased sharply, as seen in expanding Bollinger Bands and a 4.3x volume spike in the first half of the day.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 4.25, confirming a short-term reversal after a prior pullback to 4.16.
• On-chain turnover reached $109.5M at peak, aligning with price and confirming bullish conviction during the breakout.

Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) opened at $4.168 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.527 on 2025-09-18 at the same time, reaching a high of $4.573 and a low of $4.145. The pair rose 5.6% over the past 24 hours with total volume of 16.1 million tokens and notional turnover of approximately $72.4 million. The price action reflected increased bullish conviction in the morning hours, supported by volume surges and strong follow-through buying.

Structure & Formations

Price broke above a key resistance cluster between $4.25 and $4.27 after a corrective pullback to $4.16, where a bullish engulfing pattern formed. The 15-minute chart showed a strong consolidation phase between $4.16 and $4.19 in the early morning before a sharp upward move. A notable doji formed at $4.46 in midday ET, hinting at temporary indecision. Key support levels include $4.42 and $4.36, while resistance sits at $4.57 and $4.61.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20- and 50-period moving averages crossed above $4.30 in the morning, indicating short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period MAs crossed above the 200-period MA, forming a golden cross, a historically bullish signal. The 50-period MA is currently at $4.39, while the 200-period MA remains at $4.28. Price is trading well above both, indicating a strong near-term uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD histogram turned positive and expanded rapidly after 01:00 ET, confirming accelerating bullish momentum. RSI surged past 70 into overbought territory by 03:00 ET and remained above 60 for most of the session, indicating strong buying pressure. A bearish divergence emerged briefly in the late afternoon, but a strong follow-through move pushed RSI back above 65, reinforcing the bullish narrative.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as the Bollinger Bands widened to reflect a move from $4.16 (lower band) to $4.57 (upper band). Price closed near the upper band in the final hours of the 24-hour window, suggesting the move could continue. A contraction in the bands was observed in the early morning, which acted as a precursor to the breakout. The current wide bands indicate a continuation phase of the trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 700,000 tokens in the 18:15 ET hour, coinciding with the initial breakout from the $4.25–$4.27 resistance. Notional turnover surged to $4.5 million during that period, the highest of the day. Divergence between price and turnover was observed in the late afternoon, with volume slowing despite continued price gains. This could signal a short-term pause or consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price retested the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $4.21 before rallying to $4.37 (78.6% level). On the daily chart, the move from $4.14 to $4.57 aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4.37 and the 78.6% level at $4.52. The current level of $4.527 sits just above the 78.6% retracement, suggesting a possible near-term target of $4.60–$4.65 if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 50-period MA as a trend filter and entering long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above it, provided RSI is between 40 and 60 and volume is above the 15-minute average. Stop-loss placement could be at the nearest Fibonacci support level, while take-profit targets align with the 61.8% and 78.6% levels on both the 15-minute and daily charts. This approach would aim to capture directional momentum while managing risk in a volatile market.