Market Overview: Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) on 2025-09-15

• Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) traded with a bearish bias over the 24-hour period, closing near its session low.
• Price broke below key intraday support levels, with bearish momentum confirmed by RSI and declining volume.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed early in the session, signaling a shift in short-term sentiment.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 07:45 ET, with a sharp drop of over 7% in a few hours.
• Total notional turnover surged above $4.6 million, highlighting increased selling pressure and market attention.

Polkadot/Tether (DOTUSDT) opened at $4.319 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14 and closed at $4.172 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15. The pair reached a high of $4.396 and a low of $4.136, with a total traded volume of 3,996,970.15 and notional turnover of approximately $17,334,641. The session was marked by a sharp downward move in late morning/early afternoon ET, driven by a large selloff after a failed recovery.

Structure & Formations

The session saw a breakdown of key intraday support levels at $4.33 and $4.28, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming at the open of the session and confirming a reversal from a prior consolidation phase. A bearish divergence in RSI and a strong sell-off after 07:45 ET (a $4.317 to $4.136 move) signaled increased bearish conviction. A deep red candle closed at $4.172, which may act as a short-term support ahead of the $4.15 level.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA remained bearishly aligned below the price action, confirming a downtrend. The 50EMA dipped below the 100SMA on the daily chart, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD turned negative early in the session and remained below the signal line, showing waning bullish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory at the session low but failed to trigger a bounce, indicating bearish exhaustion rather than a reversal setup.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with the price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band. The move from $4.396 to $4.136 saw the price reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior 15-minute bullish swing. A potential bounce from that level was not confirmed, and price continued lower, suggesting a deeper bearish structure may be forming.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after the 07:45 ET selloff, with over $4.6 million in notional turnover concentrated in that move. The sharp price drop coincided with the highest hourly turnover, confirming the bearish narrative. However, volume has since declined, suggesting a lack of follow-through. A divergence between price and volume may indicate waning bearish conviction, though it remains to be seen whether this signals a reversal or just a pause in the selloff.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish exhaustion observed in RSI and the large bearish engulfing pattern early in the session, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry at the close of the engulfing candle with a stop above the high and a target at the nearest Fibonacci or support level. A 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio would be appropriate, targeting the 61.8% retracement or key support at $4.15–$4.13. This approach aligns with the current technical bias but should be tested across multiple timeframes to assess robustness.