Market Overview for Polkadot (DOTUSDT)

• Polkadot (DOTUSDT) fell 10.8% in 24 hours, closing near 3.900 with bearish momentum and high volume.
• A large bearish candle at 19:45 ET-1 confirmed a breakdown below key support, triggering follow-through selling.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while Bollinger Bands expanded, suggesting increased volatility ahead.
• Fibonacci retracement levels indicate potential support at 3.85 and 3.80, with resistance near 3.95.

Market Overview

Polkadot (DOTUSDT) opened at 4.072 on 2025-08-24 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 3.900 at 12:00 ET-1 on 2025-08-25. The price hit a high of 4.267 and a low of 3.853 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 11.7 million, with notional turnover at $42.9 million.

The market structure showed a clear breakdown below a prior support level at ~4.06, confirmed by a large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 19:45 ET-1. This candle, which gapped down from 4.26 to 4.16, triggered follow-through selling and a wave of stop-loss orders.

Structure & Formations

On the 15-minute chart, a key support zone formed between 4.04 and 4.06. The breakdown below this zone was confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a doji at 00:45 ET, signaling indecision and a shift in sentiment. A further breakdown below 3.95 could trigger additional bearish pressure, with the next key support level at 3.85.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart indicate a strong bearish bias, with the 50-period line decisively below the 20-period. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, suggesting the longer-term downtrend remains intact but with no immediate reversal signs.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned bearish after a sharp decline in price, with the MACD line below the signal line and diverging from the rally at 05:15 ET. RSI reached an oversold level (~28), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce but not a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded sharply following the large bearish candle at 19:45 ET-1, indicating heightened volatility. The price closed near the lower band at 3.900, which may offer near-term support. A break below the 3.853 low could extend the contraction phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 1.8 million at 19:45 ET-1, confirming the breakdown and showing strong bearish conviction. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the price action. Divergences were minimal, suggesting the move is broadly aligned with on-chain activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing (4.26 to 3.853), key retracement levels are at 3.94 (38.2%) and 4.07 (61.8%). A bounce from 3.853 may test the 38.2% level, but a close above 3.94 is needed to signal a short-term rebound.

Looking ahead, Polkadot may find near-term support around 3.85, with a potential bounce toward 3.95. However, a sustained close below 3.85 could accelerate the downtrend. Traders should remain cautious due to increased volatility and bearish momentum.