Market Overview for POLJPY: Volatility, Momentum Reversal, and Strong Volume Flows

• POLJPY opened at 29.57 and closed at 28.85 after a volatile 24-hour session with a high of 30.10 and low of 27.33.
• Strong bearish momentum continued into the final hours, with a sharp reversal from oversold RSI levels.
• Bollinger Bands showed wide expansion during the price drop, indicating heightened volatility.
• Volume spiked significantly during the 15:00 ET to 16:00 ET window as POLJPY surged past 30.08.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 28.43 and 28.24 acted as temporary supports during the intraday selloff.

The POLJPY pair opened at 29.57 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 28.85 at the same time on 2025-10-12, after reaching an intraday high of 30.10 and a low of 27.33. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of approximately 231,830.8 units and a notional turnover of ~¥6.7 million. Price action displayed bearish dominance early on, but a sharp reversal emerged in the final hours of the session as buyers stepped in.

The structure of the 24-hour chart reveals key support levels at 28.43, 28.24, and 27.86, with the first two levels successfully holding during selloffs. Resistance levels at 29.74, 29.80, and 30.08 were tested, with the latter showing strong rejection from buyers. Notable candlestick patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern at 29.74–29.35 and a bullish reversal at 28.49–28.77 around 06:30 ET. A doji formed at 28.67 around 05:00 ET, signaling indecision before the final rally.

The 15-minute chart showed the 20-period and 50-period moving averages diverging in a bearish direction early in the session, but the 50-period MA gained traction during the late rebound. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs were broadly aligned in a bearish slope before the recent reversal. RSI reached oversold territory at 27.33 (around 27) but bounced off it, suggesting potential for a short-covering move. MACD also turned positive in the final hours, confirming the short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands displayed significant expansion during the downward move to 27.33, indicating high volatility, but began to contract as the price stabilized near 28.49–28.85. The 28.85 close was near the upper band, suggesting potential for a short-term consolidation or pullback. Volume was uneven, with a large spike at 15:00 ET as the pair surged to 30.08, and smaller but sustained volume during the 06:00 ET rebound. Notional turnover aligned with volume, indicating genuine price action rather than wash trading.

Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% (28.43) and 61.8% (28.24) acted as temporary supports during the pullback, and the 78.6% level at 27.86 held during the intraday selloff. These levels may continue to influence near-term price behavior. The pair may test 28.49 again on the upside in the short term, but bearish pressure could return if these levels fail.

If the price remains above 28.43 in the next 24 hours, it could indicate a potential bullish reversal with a target near 29.00. However, a break below 27.86 would likely confirm a bearish trend continuation. Investors should remain cautious and monitor key support and resistance levels for confirmation signals.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in moving averages early in the session and the oversold RSI conditions followed by a confirmed reversal, a potential backtesting strategy could be designed as follows: enter a long position when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and RSI moves above 30, with a stop-loss placed below the nearest Fibonacci support level. This approach would aim to capture the reversal bounce while managing risk on a potential retest of 28.49–28.35.