Market Overview: POLJPY Volatile 24-Hour Move

Summary
• Price declined sharply from 16.60 to 16.07, forming a long bearish candle with confirmation at 16.24.
• Strong buying pressure emerged between 16.15 and 16.18, indicating support potential.
• Volume surged at 00:00–02:30 ET with a sharp rally, followed by consolidation and mixed momentum.
• RSI hit oversold levels below 30 twice, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 00:00–01:45 ET rally, reflecting increased volatility.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 16.60 at 12:00 ET–1, reaching a high of 16.68 before falling to a low of 16.07 and closing at 16.47 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 10,739.8 units, with a turnover of 170,209.7 JPY.

Structure and Key Levels

Price action over the 24-hour period showed a sharp bearish breakdown from 16.60 to 16.07, followed by a significant rally back to 16.47. A key support level appears to be forming around 16.24–16.23, with volume increasing as price approached this range. Resistance is now likely positioned near 16.51–16.59, where the price tested during the latter half of the day. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed at 02:30 ET, indicating a potential reversal in the short term.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI indicator hit oversold conditions below 30 twice—once at 00:00 ET and again at 05:30 ET—suggesting that a rebound could be imminent. The MACD crossed into positive territory during the 01:30–02:30 ET rally, confirming short-term bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded during the 00:00–01:45 ET surge, reflecting heightened volatility, before tightening again as price stabilized.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early part of the day, especially at 23:00–00:45 ET, as price fell to 16.07. The largest volume spike (5486.1 units) occurred at 05:30 ET as price began its retest of prior levels. Notional turnover mirrored volume increases, especially during the 01:30–02:30 ET rally. There was no notable divergence between price and volume, suggesting that the rally from 16.07 to 16.47 has some genuine conviction.

Key Observations and Forward Outlook

The 24-hour period featured a strong bearish breakdown followed by a robust bullish response, suggesting a potential turning point. While the immediate support at 16.24–16.23 held, the retest of 16.51–16.59 may determine whether the bullish momentum continues. Investors may watch for a sustained move above 16.59 for confirmation of a reversal, though a breakdown below 16.23 could extend the decline. Given the recent volatility, caution is advised, and stop-loss placements may be prudent to manage downside risk.