Market Overview for POLJPY: 24-Hour Action and Key Levels

• POLJPY opened at 41.74 and closed at 40.13, down 3.57% over 24 hours with a high of 42.12 and low of 39.8.
• A bearish trend dominates with 61.8% Fibonacci support at ~40.13 and key resistance at 41.67.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with notable volume spikes at 41.93 and 40.8.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions near 30, but momentum remains weak.
• Bollinger Bands show price retesting the lower band as bearish pressure intensifies.

The POL/Yen pair (POLJPY) opened at 41.74 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 40.13 at 12:00 ET today, recording a 24-hour high of 42.12 and a low of 39.80. Total volume across the 24-hour 15-minute chart reached 57960.7, with total turnover amounting to 58,677.67 (sum of ‘amount’ values). Price activity has shown a bearish bias, with multiple breakdowns from key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

POLJPY’s 24-hour chart reveals a bearish bias marked by multiple breakdowns from key resistance levels, including 41.67 and 41.93. A bearish engulfing pattern occurred near 41.89–41.93, followed by a series of lower lows from 41.67 to 40.13. A notable bullish reversal failed to form near 41.87, where the price briefly closed higher but was swiftly reversed. The 39.8–40.13 swing appears to have formed a potential oversold support cluster, with 40.13 aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the prior 40.8–42.12 rally.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key support levels include 40.13 (61.8% retracement), 39.8 (swing low), and 39.5 (potential next target). Resistance levels are located at 40.87 (recent high), 41.67 (broken on the way down), and 41.93 (former consolidation high). A break above 41.67 could signal a retest of 41.89, though volume and momentum indicators suggest this is unlikely in the short term.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA early in the session, signaling a bearish crossover. The 50-period MA now sits near 41.30, while the 20-period MA has dropped below 40.80. Daily moving averages show a similar bearish divergence with the 50-period MA (41.45) above the 200-period MA (41.10), but the 100-period MA is at 41.00. This suggests a potential continuation of the bearish trend if the 40.13 level holds.

MACD and RSI

The MACD has moved below its signal line and remains in negative territory, indicating sustained bearish momentum. RSI has dropped into the 30–34 range, signaling oversold conditions. However, without a strong rally, a rebound may remain weak. The RSI divergence from price action suggests a potential correction may be ahead but is unlikely to reverse the overall bearish trend.

Volatility and Turnover

Volatility expanded significantly during the 24-hour period, with price swings exceeding 2% in certain intervals. A key volume spike occurred at 41.93, where turnover reached 4151.6, marking a failed attempt to hold above 41.67. The final 15-minute bar of the 24-hour period closed at 40.13, with a volume of 506.7 and turnover of 40.13, indicating ongoing bearish pressure and a lack of bullish participation.

Price vs. Volume Divergence

While volume increased during the 41.93–40.13 decline, the price action remained bearish, suggesting volume confirmed the trend. A minor divergence appeared near 40.87, where volume was low despite a small rebound, indicating weak bullish conviction. Investors should monitor volume behavior near 40.13 for confirmation of support or rejection.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands have shown an expansion during the session, with price spending time near the lower band, especially from 04:00 to 09:00 ET. Price retested the lower band multiple times, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 40.13 has been a key level of support, with the 38.2% retracement at 41.26 acting as a former resistance that has since turned into a key bearish pivot.

Implications for Future Moves

The market appears to be in a bearish phase, with key support near 40.13. A break below this level could open the door for a move toward 39.8 and then 39.5. Conversely, a close above 41.67 would be required to suggest a potential reversal. However, with RSI near oversold and MACD in bearish territory, a reversal is unlikely in the near term. Investors should watch for confirmation of support or rejection at 40.13 before committing to new long positions.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be built around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Bollinger Band dynamics observed in the 24-hour period. A short entry could be considered on a close below 40.13 with a stop above 40.87, targeting 39.5 based on the Fibonacci and volatility structure. Alternatively, a bullish breakout strategy could look for a retest of 40.87 with volume confirmation, though this is less likely given current momentum indicators. The bearish divergence in MACD and the sustained bearish pressure suggest that a short bias may offer higher probability in the next 24 hours.