Market Overview: POLJPY on 2025-10-11

• POLJPY dropped sharply from ¥35.17 to as low as ¥30.41 in the 24-hour period, marking a bearish reversal.
• Strong volume surges were observed during the drop, particularly in the ¥35-30 range.
• Oversold RSI and Fibonacci levels at ¥23.58 may trigger short-term buying interest.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 21:30 ET, with price moving within Bollinger Bands.
• A bullish reversal pattern formed near ¥28.00, suggesting potential for a rebound.

Opening Summary

POL/Yen opened at ¥34.92 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of ¥35.17 before declining to a 24-hour low of ¥30.41. The pair closed at ¥29.48 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the period was 740,713.4, while notional turnover amounted to approximately ¥22,124,407. The session was marked by a sharp selloff, heavy volume, and a recovery attempt near ¥28.00.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a significant bearish breakdown starting at 21:30 ET when the price gapped down from ¥34.39 to ¥30.74. A key support level was identified around ¥28.00, where a bullish reversal pattern emerged. This level coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the ¥35.17 to ¥30.41 move. A doji and a bullish engulfing pattern formed at this level, hinting at potential short-term buying pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, which were at ¥29.76 and ¥29.67 respectively. This suggests bearish momentum is still intact in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at ¥29.30, the 100 at ¥28.95, and the 200 at ¥28.65. Price is currently near the 50 MA, which may act as a pivot point for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the selloff and remained negative, indicating bearish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory near 30, reaching as low as 28, which may support a short-term bounce. However, divergence between price and RSI in the ¥28.00–¥29.60 range suggests caution, as overbought conditions could reemerge with a strong rally.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands widened sharply during the selloff, with price breaking below the lower band at ¥30.41. Since then, price has moved back toward the middle band, now at ¥29.20. This indicates a potential return to equilibrium, with the lower band now acting as a psychological floor. The expansion and contraction pattern suggests increased volatility is still a risk in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the breakdown from ¥34.39 to ¥30.74, peaking at 508,254.1 units of volume in the 21:30 ET 15-minute candle. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the most aggressive selloffs coinciding with the largest volume spikes. A divergence appeared at ¥28.00, where volume dropped despite a price rebound, suggesting limited conviction in the recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels for the ¥35.17 to ¥30.41 move are at ¥33.36 (38.2%), ¥31.95 (50%), and ¥30.96 (61.8%). Price is currently near ¥29.48, which aligns with the 76.4% level. On the daily chart, the ¥28.00–¥29.60 range overlaps with the 61.8% and 78.6% levels, making it a key area to watch for a potential bounce or continuation of the downward trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could involve entering long positions at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (¥28.00) with a stop-loss below the recent low of ¥27.83 and a take-profit at the 50% retracement of ¥29.40. This aligns with the bullish reversal patterns observed and the RSI entering oversold territory. The strategy would aim to capture a short-term rebound in the 24–48 hours.

Outlook and Risk

In the next 24 hours, POLJPY may test the ¥28.00 level for sustainability. A break above ¥29.40 could trigger a retest of ¥30.00, while a break below ¥27.83 could extend the selloff toward ¥26.50. Investors should remain cautious due to high volatility and the potential for a sharp pullback if bearish momentum persists.