Market Overview for POLJPY (2025-10-06)

• POLJPY surged 9.7% over 24 hours, closing at 37.09 after a bullish breakout above 36.50.
• Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) suggest overbought conditions but remain aligned with price.
• Bollinger Bands widened as volatility spiked, with price nearing the upper band on the 15-min chart.
• Volume spiked during the final 6 hours, especially after 12:00 ET, confirming the rally.
• Key resistance is now at 36.75–37.10, with immediate support near 36.44.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 35.28 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, surged to 37.21, and closed at 37.09 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. Total volume reached 91,852.9 units, and notional turnover hit ¥3,217,995.2 (assuming 1 unit = 1 POL). The 24-hour rally was driven by a sustained bullish breakout and confirmation through strong volume and momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a sharp bear-to-bull reversal from 18:45 ET (35.34 close) to 19:00 ET (35.27 open), followed by a wave of long-bodies and bullish continuation patterns. By 21:15 ET, a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed a breakout above prior resistance at 35.39. A key 15-minute doji formed at 00:15 ET (35.45), suggesting short-term indecision but was quickly overcome by buying pressure. On the daily chart, the 36.4–36.75 range appears as a new support zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are bullish, both crossed below and then above price between 20:00–00:00 ET. The 20SMA currently sits at 36.77, and the 50SMA at 36.68, with both showing strong upward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA are all aligned, with price above all three, indicating a strong bullish bias. This alignment reinforces the recent bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 21:00 ET and remained in positive territory, confirming bullish momentum. The histogram expanded after 02:00 ET, showing increasing buying strength. The RSI (14) peaked at 76.5 during the final hours of the 24-hour window, indicating overbought conditions. However, the divergence between RSI and price is minimal, suggesting the rally may hold for another few hours.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 01:30 and 08:30 ET, with the upper band moving above 36.90. Price closed near the upper band, signaling a high-momentum move. The contraction before 00:00 ET was followed by a sharp expansion, typical of breakout scenarios. The current price of 37.09 is within the upper band, and the next potential target may be the upper band level of 37.16–37.30.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained below 3,000 units until 02:00 ET but spiked to over 9,000 units between 02:00–06:00 ET, confirming the bullish breakout. The highest turnover occurred during the 09:15 ET (36.37–36.37) and 14:15 ET (36.86–37.10) candles, both of which were large bullish bodies. Price and volume remained aligned, showing no bearish divergence. A final volume peak at 16:00 ET (2882.5 units) confirmed the closing bullish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 34.9–37.21 swing, key levels are at 36.44 (38.2%), 36.63 (50%), and 36.70 (61.8%). Price held above 36.44 during the final hours and closed near 36.70. On the daily chart, the 36.4–36.75 zone is forming a potential new consolidation level. A break below 36.44 would target the next support at 36.22–36.27.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong alignment of moving averages, the bullish MACD, and the volume confirmation, a potential backtesting strategy would involve entering a long position at the 21:15 ET candle (35.39 close) with a stop loss just below the 19:00 ET low (35.27) and a take profit at the 36.75–37.10 Fibonacci 61.8% and upper Bollinger Band levels. This setup would aim to capture a 10–12% move in a 6–8-hour window, leveraging the confluence of price action, momentum, and volume. The 00:15 ET doji offers a potential early exit or partial take profit option.