Market Overview for POLJPY (2025-09-21)

• POLJPY experienced a 9.3% decline over the last 24 hours, closing at 36.80 after a sharp drop from 37.50 at 12:00 ET − 1.
• Price traded in a tight consolidation range in early hours before breaking support levels and accelerating downward midday.
• High-volume clusters emerged near 37.20 and 36.80, indicating key areas of accumulation and exhaustion.
• RSI entered oversold territory in the afternoon, but failed to trigger a rebound, suggesting bearish momentum persists.
• Bollinger Band contraction in early hours preceded the sharp downward move, confirming increased volatility and directional bias.

Opening Summary and Key Metrics

POLJPY opened at 37.50 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET − 1 and traded as high as 37.54 before closing at 36.80 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The 24-hour low was 36.72, marking a 9.3% decline. Total volume amounted to 76,118.3 units, with notional turnover reaching ¥2.74 million, suggesting a relatively liquid but bearish session for the pair.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a series of bearish engulfing patterns starting around 09:30 ET, as prices moved from 36.94 down to 36.75. A key support level appears to have formed around 36.80–36.72, where price consolidated in the final hours. A long lower shadow at 11:45 ET and a bearish harami at 10:00 ET indicated weakening sentiment. The pair tested the 37.20–37.25 range multiple times but failed to hold, suggesting the area is a critical resistance-turned-support-turned-resistance level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were aligned bearishly, with price consistently below both. The 50-period line hovered near 37.05, and the 20-period dipped to 36.95 by the end of the session. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at 37.20, 100-period at 37.40, and 200-period at 37.60 indicate a bearish alignment, suggesting the downtrend remains intact and price may continue testing lower support levels in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early morning session, confirming bearish momentum. By midday, the MACD histogram had expanded significantly, signaling intensifying downward pressure. The RSI indicator bottomed around 29 at 09:30 ET, indicating an oversold condition. However, the lack of a strong rebound following the oversold level suggests weak buying interest and continued bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction between 01:00–03:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion during the mid-morning selloff. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating extreme bearish momentum and potentially a high probability of further downward movement unless a strong reversal emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked notably during the morning selloff, with a 15-minute bar at 09:30 ET showing 12,153.9 units traded at 36.75, the lowest level of the session. This volume cluster, combined with the sharp move, signals increased bearish participation. Notional turnover mirrored volume trends, with the largest turnover occurring during the 09:30–09:45 ET window. Price and turnover were aligned during the selloff, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent 37.50–36.72 swing identified key levels: the 23.6% retracement at 37.24, the 38.2% at 37.14, the 50.0% at 37.11, and the 61.8% at 37.03. Price held at 37.14 for a brief period in the early morning but failed to retest the 37.24 level after the mid-morning breakdown. The 37.03 level now appears to be the immediate resistance if the pair begins a retracement, but a continuation below 36.72 could see further extension into the 36.55–36.40 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves a short-entry signal triggered when price breaks below the 20-period moving average on a 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed at the recent swing high and a target at the next Fibonacci extension level. Given the current setup, with price well below the 20-period MA and a strong bearish MACD, this strategy could have generated a valid entry near 37.05 on 2025-09-20, with a target near 36.72 and a stop-loss near 37.24. This would have captured the full 150-point move down to 36.72, validating the strategy's potential for short-term bearish setups in high-volatility environments like the one observed.