Market Overview: POLJPY (2025-09-18)

• POLJPY traded higher over 24 hours, closing near session highs amid rising volume and turnover.
• Momentum accelerated mid-session with a sharp rally to 38.60, followed by consolidation and a modest pullback.
• Key resistance appears at 38.6–38.7, with support likely near 38.2–38.3 based on recent swing reactions.
• Volatility expanded during the upward leg, with Bollinger Bands showing widening and price testing the upper band.
• Volume spiked during the breakout above 37.3 but has since moderated, suggesting limited follow-through from that level.

POLJPY opened at 36.86 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, rose to a high of 38.88, and closed at 38.30 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total volume was 211,912.7, and notional turnover reached 7,848,189.0. The pair showed a strong upward bias with a bullish continuation pattern emerging from 37.3, now consolidating near 38.3.

Structure & Formations

The price structure of POLJPY showed a strong rally from 36.86 to 38.88, with a clear bullish trend developing. A notable bullish engulfing pattern appeared around 19:45 ET (37.26–37.52), followed by a strong continuation above 38.00. A minor bearish divergence developed near 38.80 with a bearish pinocchio-like formation, followed by a pullback. Key support levels appear at 38.20 and 38.40, with resistance at 38.60 and 38.70 likely to act as the next hurdles.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (MAs) crossed upwards in the 18:00–19:00 ET window, confirming the bullish bias. By 02:00–04:00 ET, the 20 MA pulled back slightly, aligning with a retracement to 38.40, but remained above the 50 MA, supporting the continuation of the trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 MA alignment was not available in the dataset, but the 15-minute structure suggests a short-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong bullish crossover and positive momentum buildup after 19:00 ET, with the histogram peaking around 20:00–21:00 ET, confirming the rally. RSI climbed above 60 and reached a high of 72, indicating overbought conditions by 23:00 ET. A subsequent pullback brought RSI down to 55 by the close, suggesting moderate consolidation but still above neutral territory. This implies that while the pair may face short-term profit-taking, the underlying bullish trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the rally unfolded from 37.00 to 38.80, with the price frequently reaching and testing the upper band. A contraction occurred around 03:00–06:00 ET as the pair consolidated between 38.40 and 38.60, suggesting a potential breakout attempt. The most recent candle closed near the upper band, indicating continued volatility and a possible continuation above 38.60. If the price breaks the upper band again, further upside to 38.80–39.00 could be expected.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout from 37.3 to 38.60, with over 10,000 trades contributing to the movement. The peak volume occurred around 20:00 ET (37.67–38.04) and again at 03:15 ET (38.65–38.88). However, turnover has since moderated, indicating reduced follow-through. A divergence emerged as price continued higher but volume declined after 05:00 ET, which may signal caution in the near term. The recent pullback saw increased volume at key support levels (38.2–38.4), suggesting accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major 15-minute swing from 37.30 to 38.60, the 38.2% retracement level sits at approximately 38.22, and the 61.8% level at 38.43. The price tested 38.43–38.45 and pulled back, suggesting it found resistance at the 61.8% level. A break above 38.60 would likely see the 78.6% retracement level at 38.77 as the next target. These levels could be key for continuation or correction signals.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern or when price closes above a 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, especially if RSI is above 50 and volume is increasing. A stop-loss could be placed below the 38.20 support level, with a target at 38.60–38.70. Given the current structure, this strategy would aim to capture the continuation of the bullish trend while managing downside risk near the key support. Incorporating a trailing stop once the target is hit could help protect gains.