Market Overview for POLJPY (2025-09-13)

• POLJPY surged over 15% in 24 hours, closing near a multi-day high of 42.47.
• Price broke above a key resistance cluster near 40.00, with bullish momentum confirmed by rising volume and RSI.
• Bollinger Band expansion and a strong bearish divergence in RSI at 42.47 suggest a short-term correction may be imminent.
• Notional turnover increased sharply during the upward trend, with the largest 15-minute spike reaching $340,000.
• A strong engulfing pattern formed at 40.00–40.06, signaling a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

At 12:00 ET–1, POLJPY opened at 39.79 and closed at 42.08 after a strong rally, reaching a high of 42.47 and a low of 39.63. Total 24-hour trading volume was 114,156 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $4.5 million. The pair has shown strong bullish momentum, particularly during the early hours of the trading day.

Structure & Formations

POLJPY formed a strong bullish engulfing pattern between 39.98 and 40.04, followed by a continuation of the upward trend. A key support level appears to be forming near 41.15–41.20, where the price corrected twice, showing strength in the 41.20–41.26 range. The 42.22–42.47 zone is now a new resistance cluster. A bearish divergence in RSI at 42.47 suggests a short-term pullback could occur.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20 and 50-period moving averages are in a bullish crossover, supporting the current uptrend. On a daily chart, the 50-period MA is now below the 200-period MA, indicating a shift from a long-term bearish to a neutral-to-bullish bias. The 100-period MA is also showing signs of turning up, reinforcing the bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has shown a strong bullish crossover in the last 24 hours, with positive divergence between price and MACD lines. RSI reached overbought levels near 75 before pulling back, indicating possible exhaustion in the short-term rally. A bearish divergence at 42.47 suggests traders may be cautious.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the upward move from 39.73 to 42.47, indicating increased volatility. The price has now closed just below the upper band at 42.47–42.50, suggesting a potential short-term consolidation phase. A retest of the lower band around 41.20 could confirm the trend's strength.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the upward wave, particularly between 03:15 ET and 08:00 ET. The largest 15-minute volume spike was 12,955.7 units, coinciding with a sharp price move from 41.07 to 41.38. Turnover also rose sharply during this period, confirming the bullish move. A divergence in volume and price was noted at 42.47, suggesting traders may be becoming more cautious.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci retracement level at 61.8% (41.84) was recently broken, indicating strong bullish sentiment. A retest of the 38.2% level at 42.22 could confirm the trend’s strength. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level is now at 41.15, which has acted as a temporary support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed patterns and indicators, a potential backtest strategy could involve a long entry at a breakout of the 41.20–41.26 support-turned-resistance zone with a stop below 41.00 and a target at 42.50–42.80. This approach would aim to capitalize on the continuation of the bullish trend. Using a 1.5:1 risk-to-reward ratio, this strategy would require careful monitoring of RSI and volume for potential early exits or stop-loss adjustments.