Market Overview for POLJPY on 2025-09-10

• POLJPY gapped lower, opening at 39.73 and testing key support near 39.3 before rallying toward 40.05.
• Momentum reversed in the final hours, with RSI signaling oversold conditions and a potential bounce.
• Volume spiked near the session low but diverged from price in the rally, signaling caution.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion after a tight contraction, indicating rising volatility.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level aligned with 39.72, acting as a pivot for the session.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 39.73 on 2025-09-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at 39.31 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-10, reaching a high of 40.13 and a low of 39.23. The 24-hour volume totaled 144,064.2 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥6,838,087. The price action revealed a bearish reversal into oversold territory and a subsequent retest of the 39.3–39.5 consolidation zone.

Structure & Formations

The session opened with bearish pressure, marked by a large bearish engulfing candle at 39.73–39.62. Price continued lower into a strong support zone near 39.30–39.34, where it found a pivot and reversed with a bullish engulfing pattern. A doji formed near 39.43–39.46, indicating indecision before a strong rally to 40.13. The 39.72 level acted as a key Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and appeared to be a turning point for the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, signaling bearish bias. The 50-period SMA at ~39.70 acted as a dynamic resistance, while the 100-period and 200-period SMAs on the daily chart were below 39.30–39.34, suggesting long-term bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover early in the session, with a bearish histogram indicating selling momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 near the 39.31 low, suggesting a possible bounce. A subsequent rally brought RSI back into neutral ground (~50), but without a clear overbought signal, hinting at limited upside potential without renewed bullish volume.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly around 39.4–39.5 before expanding with the 39.23–40.13 move. Price spent much of the session in the lower band, indicating bearish pressure and potential exhaustion. The close at 39.31 was near the lower band, reinforcing the need for a retest of this level before a potential rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 39.23 low, with a large 3,681.2-volume candle. However, as price rallied, volume declined, creating a divergence between price and volume that may indicate weakening bullish conviction. The 40.05–40.13 rally occurred on relatively low volume, which could limit the strength of a breakout attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level at 39.72 was a key turning point and acted as a pivot for the session. A move back to this level could trigger renewed short-term volatility. The 38.2% level (~39.56) was tested several times and appears to offer some near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current price structure and technical indicators, a potential backtest strategy could involve a long setup on a bullish reversal candle at the 39.30–39.34 support zone with a stop loss below 39.23 and a target near 39.68 (Fibonacci 38.2%). The MACD crossover and RSI rebound at this level could act as confirmation triggers. Alternatively, a short setup could target the 39.30–39.34 zone if RSI fails to rise above 50, with a stop above 39.46 and a target near 39.00–38.90.