Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) – October 4, 2025

• POLJPY saw a bearish reversal from 36.21 to 34.74 over 24 hours, closing 4.2% lower.
• Strongest bearish volume came between 17:00–19:00 ET, with 36k Yen turnover in a 2-hour span.
• RSI fell below 30 at 06:15 ET, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a rebound.
• Price broke below 35.0 level twice, with no immediate bounce, indicating deteriorating support.
• Bollinger Bands show recent price action near the lower band, suggesting high volatility and bearish momentum.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 35.87 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and fell to a low of 34.74, closing at 34.84 by 12:00 ET on October 4. The 24-hour range was 36.21 to 34.74, with total volume of 90,146.0 and turnover of 3,194,485 Yen. Price action was bearish across the full session, with key patterns and indicators highlighting continued downside pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed several key bearish formations, including a strong bearish engulfing pattern at 17:15 ET and a doji near the 35.52 level at 18:30 ET. These suggest indecision and rejection of bullish attempts. The 35.0–35.23 range acted as a key support zone that was tested multiple times, with the most recent breach at 05:45 ET. Key support levels currently include 34.85, 34.74, and 34.61, while resistance lies at 35.0, 35.14, and 35.21.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both show a clear bearish crossover, with price below both. On the daily chart (derived from the 15-minute data), a 50/100/200-period MA crossover suggests a continuation of the bearish trend. The 50-day MA appears to be near 35.15, a level that has already been tested and broken, offering a key reference for potential retracement or retesting.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish divergence early in the session, with the histogram shrinking as price declined. The RSI dropped below 30 at 06:15 ET and remained below for most of the session, indicating oversold conditions, but no significant bullish bounce followed. The RSI is currently near 28, suggesting potential for a minor rebound, though without a bullish breakout above 35.0, it is unlikely to sustain momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp decline from 36.21 to 34.74, with price frequently sitting at or near the lower Bollinger Band. This indicates high volatility and aggressive bearish pressure. The width of the bands has increased, suggesting that the market remains in a high-volatility phase, with price likely to remain within the lower half of the bands unless a strong bullish reversal occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:00–19:00 ET window, confirming the bearish breakdown from 36.21 to 35.48. However, volume has since declined, indicating reduced conviction in the move lower. Turnover reached a peak of 36k Yen during the 18:00–19:00 ET timeframe, but has since settled into a lower range of 500–1,500 Yen. A divergence between price and volume is observed in the final hours of the session, with price declining but volume not confirming the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute chart shows that price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level of the 36.21–34.74 move. A break below 34.74 would likely test the 61.8% level at 34.61, with the 38.2% at 34.85 acting as a near-term support. On the daily scale, the 61.8% retracement level of the larger 36.21–34.74 decline is at 34.72, closely aligning with current price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this pair could be to go long on a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., hammer or bullish engulfing) that forms while RSI is below 30 and price is near the lower Bollinger Band. A short-term long entry could be placed above the 34.85–34.87 level, with a stop loss just below the 34.74 level. The target would be to reach the 35.0–35.14 range, which has shown repeated resistance and could offer a short-term profit zone. This setup aligns with the observed structure and momentum indicators, offering a risk-reward profile of approximately 1:1.5. Testing this over a 15-minute or 1-hour timeframe could provide insights into its viability in a volatile market like POLJPY.

Looking ahead, POLJPY faces a critical test of the 34.74 level in the next 24 hours. A break below this could accelerate the decline toward 34.61 and beyond, while a rebound above 34.85 may offer a short-term bounce but remains unlikely without a clear reversal pattern and RSI confirmation. Investors should remain cautious, as the bearish trend appears to have momentum and key support levels are under pressure.