Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY)

Summary
• Price opened at 29.16 and closed at 26.57 after a 24-hour decline.
• Volatility spiked sharply with a low of 25.78 during the session.
• High volume observed during the 15:30–15:45 ET window.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 29.16 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 26.57 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The 24-hour period saw a high of 29.77 and a low of 25.78, with total traded volume of 411,429.3 units and turnover of 12,028,842.6 in notional value. The market displayed aggressive bearish momentum in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern showed a strong bearish reversal with a shooting star forming around 29.77 and a bearish engulfing pattern during the 15:30–15:45 ET candle, confirming a key resistance breakdown. A support level appears to be forming near 26.50–26.60, where buying interest may stabilize the price.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. The price has remained below both lines for the entire session. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period EMAs have not been provided, but the 15-minute divergence suggests a short-term bearish continuation could be likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a sharp bearish expansion as the price dropped below the 27.5 level, indicating a strong momentum shift. The RSI dipped well into oversold territory, reaching 25–27 by session end, suggesting the market could be due for a short-term bounce, though bearish sentiment remains dominant.

Bollinger Bands

The price broke below the lower Bollinger Band, reaching 25.78, indicating heightened volatility. The bands were wide open during the 15:45–16:00 ET window, signaling a breakout phase. Prices may consolidate near the lower band for the next 24 hours before testing key support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 15:30 ET with 655,230.0 units traded, coinciding with a sharp price drop. Notional turnover also spiked during this period. The divergence between volume and price suggests further downside could be likely unless a strong bullish reversal occurs.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing low of 25.78 and the high of 29.77, key levels of 28.05 (38.2%) and 26.88 (61.8%) appear relevant. The current price near 26.57 may test the 61.8% level for a potential bounce or breakdown in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based backtest requires confirmation of the correct ticker symbol for POLJPY, as the current symbol may not be available in standard data feeds. If the symbol is corrected to a recognized pair such as DOTJPY or DOT-USDT, a 14-day RSI(14) strategy could be evaluated. Buy signals would be generated when RSI < 30, with a 50-day holding period. Historical performance statistics from 2022–2025 could then be reported.