Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) – 24-Hour Summary

Summary
• POLJPY opened at 26.43 and closed at 26.86 after a choppy 24-hour session.
• Volatility spiked mid-session, with a 1.03 Yen intraday swing.
• Volume surged at key turning points, particularly after 00:00 ET.
• RSI and MACD signaled shifting momentum, with no clear overbought or oversold levels.
• Bollinger Bands reflected moderate volatility, with price hovering near the upper band in the final hours.

The POL/Yen pair (POLJPY) opened at 26.43 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 26.86 at 12:00 ET the following day. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 27.36 and a low of 25.92. Total trading volume across the 15-minute OHLCV data was approximately 198,600.2 units, with an estimated notional turnover of roughly ¥5,367,525.50, assuming each trade corresponds to one unit at the relevant price.

On the 15-minute chart, the price formed a bullish engulfing pattern around 04:30 ET and a bearish harami near 03:30 ET, suggesting short-term directional shifts. Key support levels emerged at 26.41 and 26.26, both of which saw notable volume and price retests. Resistance was observed at 26.72 and 26.94, with the latter marking a short-term high for the session.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a tightening crossover in the early morning, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The daily chart’s 50/100/200 SMA alignment remained relatively flat, with no strong directional bias. The MACD histogram reflected alternating bullish and bearish momentum, with the line crossing the signal line three times during the session, indicating a lack of sustained directional bias. RSI readings oscillated between 30 and 70, avoiding overbought or oversold territory, though a brief spike near 72 at 01:30 ET hinted at short-term bullish pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands remained relatively narrow for the majority of the session, with a modest expansion occurring around 05:00 ET as volume and price action surged. The price spent the final hours near the upper band, suggesting potential exhaustion in the bullish momentum. The contraction phase earlier in the session, between 18:00 and 21:00 ET, indicated a lull in volatility, which was later broken by a sharp rally. This pattern is often a precursor to a breakout or a reversal, but the lack of clear follow-through signals made the direction uncertain.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked significantly at key turning points, particularly at 00:00 ET (36,099.3 units), 03:45 ET (11,096.6 units), and 04:30 ET (15.5 units), where price broke above 27.05 for the first time. These spikes were accompanied by higher notional turnover, confirming the strength of those moves. However, divergence was observed between volume and price action after 08:15 ET, where volume declined despite a continued rally, signaling potential exhaustion. This could indicate a reversal or consolidation in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major swing from 25.92 to 27.36 revealed key psychological levels at 26.46 (38.2%) and 26.79 (61.8%). The price retested the 61.8% level multiple times, suggesting a potential pivot point for the near future. If the price continues to rally, the 78.6% retracement at approximately 27.17 could become a short-term resistance. Conversely, a breakdown below the 50% level at 26.64 may invite renewed bearish pressure, especially given the volume divergence observed in recent hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “Bullish Engulfing – 3-Day Hold” strategy described above uses candlestick patterns as entry triggers and enforces a fixed 3-day exit rule. This approach aligns with the observed bullish engulfing pattern at 04:30 ET, where a potential entry signal would have been generated. The absence of a stop-loss or take-profit mechanism isolates the pattern’s effectiveness from external risk management influences, making it ideal for studying the natural directional bias of the pattern in the context of POLJPY’s volatility and volume dynamics. The backtest results could offer insights into how such a pattern performs on this pair, particularly in light of the observed divergence and consolidation behavior.