Market Overview: POL/Yen (POLJPY) 24-Hour Summary

• POLJPY traded in a volatile range, dropping from 30.53 to 29.26 before rebounding to 30.22, showing bearish pressure.
• A long bearish candle closed at 29.75 amid high volume (68,260.5) during the drop from 29.53 to 29.26.
• RSI and MACD indicated overbought conditions early before a sharp bearish reversal.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the sell-off, highlighting increased volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 29.96 (19:30 ET) as price dropped below 29.88, signaling a short-term bearish bias.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 30.53 on 2025-10-28 12:00 ET, reached a high of 30.67, dipped to a low of 29.26, and closed at 29.75 as of 2025-10-29 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour window, total volume amounted to approximately 564,804.4 units, with notional turnover reaching $16,696,534.96. Price action reflected a significant bearish shift, particularly in the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Structure & Formations revealed a critical bearish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET when price closed at 29.96 after opening at 30.25, confirming a shift in sentiment. Key support levels include 29.50–29.70, while 30.00–30.20 acted as resistance in the rebound. A doji formed at 29.59 (22:00–22:15), hinting at indecision, though bearish momentum reasserted. The 29.26 low appears as a psychological floor, with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 29.72 aligning closely with current levels.

MACD showed bearish divergence after a positive crossover in the midday hours, while RSI hit overbought territory early (30.67), then fell into oversold at 29.26. Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, reflecting heightened volatility, and price closed near the lower band at 29.75, suggesting potential for a bounce. However, if volume does not confirm a rebound, bearish pressure could persist.

Volume spiked during the late afternoon sell-off, particularly at 29.53–29.26, with a single candle (20:30–20:45) contributing 68,260.5 units. Notional turnover also surged during the drop, indicating aggressive shorting. Price and volume aligned bearishly, but recent rebound activity shows some short-covering. A divergence between volume and price could hint at a reversal if 29.50–29.70 holds.

Backtest Hypothesis: A short signal was triggered at the close of the bearish engulfing pattern on 19:30 ET at 29.96. A potential exit at next day’s close (29.75) would yield a -0.76% return. Extending the hold until 29.50–29.53 could improve results, but without a clear bullish reversal, short-term bearish continuation appears likely. A robust back-test would incorporate historical bearish engulfing patterns in POLJPY since 2022 and apply a fixed exit (e.g., next day’s close or 3% stop-loss).