Market Overview: POL/Yen (POLJPY) – 24-Hour Price Action & Key Technicals

• Price fell from 31.09 to 29.55 amid heavy selling pressure after 18:30 ET
• Volatility spiked as 29.30–29.50 range became contested support
• Downtrend confirmed as 50-period and 200-period moving averages both sloped lower
• MACD turned bearish and RSI approached oversold levels near 29.30
• Turnover surged over 40,000 units during 00:00–03:00 ET, aligning with sharp declines

The POLJPY pair opened at 30.92 (12:00 ET − 1) and dropped to a 24-hour low of 29.04 before rebounding slightly. The 15-minute chart shows a bearish breakdown, closing at 29.55 by 12:00 ET. Total traded volume reached 168,458.0 with turnover of 5,029,271.45 units over 24 hours. The decline was most aggressive from 20:30 to 01:00 ET as sellers overpowered buyers.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart reveals a clear bearish bias, with a decisive breakdown below 30.51 after a failed rally at 30.92. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at 20:30 ET as the close of 30.17 fell below the open of 30.4. Further, a doji at 29.46 signaled potential exhaustion at the lower end of the move. Key support levels are forming around 29.30 and 29.04, with 29.40-29.50 now acting as a minor floor.

Moving Averages

Both the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are trending downward, confirming the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period averages are also sloping lower, suggesting that the downtrend is well-anchored and may continue. Price is currently below all key moving averages, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has turned negative, with the histogram showing bearish divergence. RSI has fallen below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but without a clear reversal signal. This suggests the market may consolidate near 29.30–29.40 before resuming downward movement.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 00:00–03:00 ET window as the price gapped below the lower band, reaching as low as 29.04. Currently, the price is near the lower band again, reinforcing the bearish tone. A retest of the upper band at 29.75–29.80 could confirm a short-term bounce but may fail due to weak volume at those levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 00:00–03:00 ET window, particularly with a large 44,784.3 volume candle at 05:00 ET. This aligned with the price drop to 29.04 and suggests strong selling pressure. Turnover also surged during that period, confirming the move lower. However, volume has since dried up, suggesting a possible short-term pause in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 31.09 to 29.04, key levels of 38.2% (30.32) and 61.8% (29.48) have shown resistance and support, respectively. The 61.8% level at 29.48 was a key pivot during the 00:45–01:00 ET window, and it now acts as a potential short-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

While RSI data for POLJPY was unavailable due to an unrecognized ticker, a common solution is to use the correct FX ticker, such as PLNJPY for Polish Złoty versus Japanese Yen. Once confirmed, a 14-period RSI can be computed and integrated into a backtest strategy. For example, a 7-day holding strategy could be triggered on RSI readings below 30 (oversold) with a target at the 50-line. This would align with today’s chart pattern and oversold levels at 29.30. If the correct ticker is confirmed, we can proceed with the backtest and refine the signal logic accordingly.