Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) – 24-Hour Candlestick Summary

• POLJPY opened at ¥27.22 and fell to a 24-hour low of ¥26.41 before recovering to close near ¥27.36 at 12:00 ET.
• Momentum shifted multiple times, with RSI hitting oversold levels early, then overbought late in the session.
• Volume surged late, especially between 03:30 and 06:30 ET, with a peak of 59752.9 yen notional at 03:30.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price swung between ¥26.41 and ¥27.36, indicating increased volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near ¥27.32–27.36, signaling potential upward continuation.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at ¥27.22 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed the 24-hour window at ¥27.36 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. The pair touched a low of ¥26.41 and a high of ¥27.40 during the session. Total volume amounted to 183,779.8, with a notional turnover of ¥4,467,197.00 across the period.

The price action unfolded in a volatile pattern, characterized by a sharp drop in the first three hours of trading, followed by a recovery and a late rally in the early morning hours. A key support level was identified near ¥26.46–26.52, where price rebounded multiple times. On the resistance side, ¥26.78–26.83 and ¥27.0–27.05 were tested and retested, with the latter being broken decisively late in the session.

Structure & Candlestick Formations

Between 21:45 and 22:45 ET, a series of bearish inside bars signaled caution and a potential reversal. Later, between 03:30 and 06:30 ET, a bullish engulfing pattern formed at ¥27.32–27.36, reinforcing a potential upward trend continuation. A doji formed at ¥26.89–26.91, suggesting indecision in a key mid-range pivot. These formations indicate that traders were actively testing and reacting to key psychological levels, especially near ¥27.00.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Using a 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (20MA and 50MA) crossed multiple times, indicating a fast-moving and directionally ambiguous market. At the 24-hour close, the 50MA sat near ¥26.95, while the 200-period daily MA (200DMA) was near ¥26.78—suggesting a potential short-term breakout above the 50MA could confirm bullish momentum.

The MACD showed a mixed signal. A bearish crossover occurred around 19:00 ET, followed by a bullish crossover at 03:30 ET. RSI confirmed this divergence, dropping below 30 into oversold territory early, then rising above 70 toward the session’s end, into overbought territory. This suggests a possible exhaustion of bearish momentum and a potential continuation of the recent upswing, though caution is warranted.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands were wide across most of the session, reflecting high volatility. Price traded near the upper band at ¥27.40 and the lower band at ¥26.41, indicating extended swings. The key Fibonacci retracement levels for the ¥26.41–27.40 swing were around ¥26.72 (38.2%) and ¥26.92 (61.8%). Price held above ¥26.92 late in the session, which could act as a key support level for the next 24 hours.

Volume and turnover surged between 03:30 and 06:30 ET, with the highest volume at ¥26.90 and ¥27.00. This surge coincided with the bullish engulfing pattern and suggests strong institutional or algorithmic buying. There was some divergence between price and volume after 06:30 ET, where price continued to climb but volume declined—indicating possible exhaustion of the upward thrust.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD Golden-Cross backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when the 12-period MACD line crosses above the 26-period signal line, with a 5-day holding period and an exit strategy. Given the late 24-hour crossover on the MACD at 03:30 ET, this signal would have triggered a long entry. If tested from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12, the performance would need to account for volatility, liquidity, and slippage. Given the current context of POLJPY, a successful MACD Golden-Cross would align with the late-volume surge and bullish engulfing pattern, potentially leading to a continuation of the recent upward move beyond ¥27.36.