Market Overview: POL/Yen (POLJPY) 24-Hour Analysis

• POL/Yen (POLJPY) surged 1.36% over 24 hours, closing at 30.65 with a low of 30.39 and volume spiking near session close
• Strong bullish momentum emerged after midday with a sharp 5.8% rebound from 30.39, indicating potential support hold
• Volatility expanded significantly as the price ranged between 30.4 and 31.77, suggesting active short-term trading
• RSI approached overbought territory near 70 post-breakout, hinting at possible near-term profit-taking
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 30.39, aligning with a key support level and indicating possible reversal bias

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 30.70 on October 26, 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 31.77, and closed at 30.65 on October 27, 12:00 ET. The pair posted a 24-hour volume of ~45,578.8 units and a turnover of ~$1,440,000. The price action displayed strong short-term bullish bias, especially following the rebound from the 30.39 support level, which held as a key floor in late trading.

The structure of the 15-minute chart shows a significant bearish breakdown followed by a sharp reversal. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages (15-min chart) crossed to the upside during the recovery phase, reinforcing the bullish bias. The daily chart indicates that the 200-day moving average remains below the current price, suggesting the trend is yet to turn long-term bullish. However, the 50-day MA crossing the 100-day MA earlier in the week may indicate a short-term structural shift in sentiment.

Momentum, as measured by MACD, turned positive from 02:30 ET on October 27 and remained in bullish territory until the close. The RSI climbed sharply to ~70 in the early hours of October 27, suggesting overbought conditions, though it pulled back slightly as volume waned in the latter half of the session. Bollinger Bands expanded during the rebound, with the price closing near the upper band, a signal often associated with continuation potential or exhaustion.

Volume spiked notably between 22:15 and 02:30 ET, with multiple candles showing high-volume range expansions. This coincided with the price testing and rebounding from the 30.39 support level, reinforcing its significance. A divergence in price and volume occurred slightly after the 04:00 ET mark, with prices continuing to rise but volume declining, hinting at possible profit-taking. The intraday Fibonacci retracement of the 30.39–31.77 move showed 61.8% at 31.12, which was tested but rejected before the final pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis: The recent price behavior aligns well with the proposed Bullish Engulfing backtest conditions. A clear engulfing pattern formed at 30.39, where the low of the engulfing candle touched the support level. If the strategy requires the engulfing candle’s low to be ≤ 30.39 for a valid signal, this would qualify. The entry could be the next candle’s open or the close of the engulfing candle, both of which occurred near 30.39. For exit conditions, if a predefined resistance level is used, 31.12 (61.8% retracement) would be a logical target; if automated swing highs are preferred, the strategy would exit upon reaching that level or the first bearish reversal. P&L calculations using close prices would best reflect the 15-minute time frame and volume-driven price shifts. No risk controls were specified, so the backtest can proceed using these parameters.