Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) on 2026-01-16

Summary
• Price action shows a sharp bearish reversal from 24.23 to 22.91, with key support around 22.70.
• RSI and MACD signal oversold conditions, hinting at potential near-term bounce.
• High-volume breakdown below 23.40 validates bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting increased uncertainty.
• Downtrend confirmed by Fibonacci 61.8% level at 22.70 acting as strong support.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 24.14 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 22.91 at 12:00 ET. The pair touched a high of 24.23 and a low of 22.48 during the 24-hour period. Total traded volume amounted to 194,365.8 units, with notional turnover reaching approximately 4,641,665.36 Yen.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour window displayed a strong bearish bias, marked by a large bearish engulfing pattern forming around 17:00 to 18:15 ET on the 5-minute chart. A notable 5-minute doji appeared at 20:45 ET, signaling indecision, followed by a sharp decline into the lower range. Key resistance appears at 23.80, where the price previously stalled, while 22.70 has acted as a reliable support level.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 5-minute chart, the price closed below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA sits at approximately 23.90, while the 20-period MA is closer to the current price. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory (below 30), which could encourage a short-term rebound. However, the MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram and a downward trend, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the afternoon and evening, reflecting heightened volatility. The price has traded near the lower band for much of the period, with the 22.48 low touching the band’s bottom. A contraction in band width has yet to form, suggesting ongoing uncertainty and the potential for further directional movement.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the early stages of the breakdown, especially between 18:15 and 19:45 ET, coinciding with the drop from 23.97 to 23.73. Turnover also rose sharply during the late-night and early morning hours (01:45 to 05:15 ET), confirming bearish momentum. However, in the past two hours, volume has been muted, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 24.23 high to the 22.48 low have shown strong relevance. The 61.8% level at 22.70 acted as a strong support zone, preventing a deeper pullback. A retest of the 38.2% level at 23.40 could confirm whether the bearish trend remains intact or if a countertrend rally is forming.

In the near term, a test of 22.70 could trigger a bounce, but a breakdown below this level may extend the decline. Investors should remain cautious of continued bearish momentum or a sharp reversal if key support holds.