Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) on 2025-12-22

Summary
• Price surged past 17.15 after a bullish reversal pattern and strong volume confirmed the breakout.
• RSI indicates overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term consolidation.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the Asian session, with turnover spiking in the final 6 hours.

Market Overview

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 16.89 on 2025-12-21, reached a high of 17.31, and closed at 17.17 on 2025-12-22. Total 24-hour trading volume was 47,805.5 with a turnover of ¥963,051.50, showing strong interest during the final hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bullish engulfing pattern during the 08:30–08:45 ET window, confirming a shift from bearish to bullish momentum. Key support levels appear around 16.85 and 16.75, while resistance levels are clustered at 17.15 and 17.27. A large bearish candle from 02:15–02:30 ET marked a short-term low at 16.75, later retraced with strong buying pressure.

Moving Averages and Trends

Over the 5-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing an upward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be acting as dynamic support, currently at 16.95. The 200-period MA remains below 17.17, suggesting the pair could continue to test new highs in the near term.

Momentum and Volatility

MACD crossed above the signal line near 0.03, confirming bullish momentum. RSI rose to 70 by 12:00 ET, signaling potential overbought conditions.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the Asian session as volatility increased, with the price closing near the upper band at 17.17, suggesting possible short-term pullback.

Volume and Turnover

Trading volume surged significantly during the final 6 hours of the session, with the largest single candle (12:45–13:00 ET) recording 2920.6 units traded and contributing ¥50,009.05 in turnover. Notional turnover closely matched price action, confirming bullish conviction.

Key Levels and Fibonacci

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the low at 16.75 and high at 17.31 show 61.8% at 17.15 and 38.2% at 17.05. The close near 17.17 aligns with the 61.8% level, suggesting potential for a pullback to 17.05 before resuming the upward trend.

The market appears to be in a strong bullish phase, with momentum and volume aligning to confirm higher prices. However, overbought RSI and the exhaustion of volatility may trigger a short-term consolidation phase before further gains. Investors should watch for a potential test of 17.05 in the next 24 hours, with a risk caveat that a break below 16.95 could trigger renewed bearish pressure.