Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) on 2025-11-11

Summary
• POLJPY opened at 27.76 and closed at 27.71 after a choppy 24-hour session.
• A key resistance at 28.55 and support near 27.60 were tested and bounced.
• Momentum indicators signal overbought and oversold swings, indicating potential volatility.

Opening Narrative

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 27.76 on 2025-11-10 12:00 ET and reached a high of 28.58 before closing at 27.71 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. The pair traded between 27.11 and 28.58. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 227,844.7, and total notional turnover (volume × price) was around 6.27 million.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a volatile consolidation phase with multiple tests of the 27.60 support and 28.55 resistance. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 28.12, followed by a series of lower highs and a doji near 27.80, indicating indecision. The price appears to be in a range-bound phase with key psychological levels around 28.00 and 27.70 acting as pivot points.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is around 27.77, while the 50-period MA is at 27.72, suggesting a very tight confluence of support. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish bias. Price currently sits just below the 50-period daily MA, which could act as a key short-term target if a bounce occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, indicating a bearish crossover. The histogram is shrinking, suggesting momentum may be slowing. RSI has swung from overbought territory (above 70 at 28.55) to oversold (below 30 at 27.61), indicating a potential reversal or consolidation phase. Traders may watch for a return to overbought or oversold levels to signal potential trend continuation or reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show recent volatility expansion, with the upper band at 28.65 and the lower band at 27.55. Price frequently tested the upper band and bounced back, especially around 28.55. A contraction is not evident, suggesting the market remains range-bound. Traders may expect price to continue within these bands unless a breakout occurs with high volume confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key price swings, especially around 28.55 and 27.60, confirming the significance of these levels. However, a divergence is noted between price and volume near 27.61, where volume dropped despite a sharp price decline. This could indicate a weakening bearish impulse. High turnover of 6.27 million suggests active participation but also points to a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing high (28.58) and low (27.11), key levels include 27.74 (23.6%), 27.60 (38.2%), and 27.46 (61.8%). Price appears to be consolidating around the 38.2% level, which could either be a support or a reversal trigger point. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement near 28.14 is a key resistance if a rally continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of a MACD-based strategy (using golden-cross signals) on POLJPY from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11 reveals a high failure rate, with significant drawdowns and an overall loss. This indicates that the MACD alone may not be sufficient for capturing profitable moves in this pair. The strategy struggled to align with actual price trends, especially after 2024. Traders may consider refining the system with additional filters such as trend confirmation or tighter stop-loss levels to improve performance. The closing price and RSI overbought/oversold levels in the current session suggest that future strategies could benefit from incorporating these signals as part of a multi-indicator setup.