Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) on 2025-11-07

Summary
• Price opened at 24.73 and rose to a high of 26.42, forming a bullish breakout from a consolidation range.
• Volume surged at the close, with the final hour showing a 2977.0-unit volume, hinting at conviction in the upward move.
• RSI shows a strong momentum buildup but near overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term pullback.

Opening to Close Activity

POLJPY opened at 24.73 (ET-1) and closed at 26.36 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-07. The 24-hour high reached 26.42, and the low was 24.47. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 154,888.7, and total turnover (notional value) amounted to approximately ¥4,017,507,332.8 (assuming average price ~25.96).

Structure & Key Levels

The price formed a bullish breakout pattern during the final hours of the session, with the 15-minute chart showing a strong rally from 25.7 to 26.42. Key resistance levels include 26.42 (recent high), with the next level at 26.60 expected to be a psychological barrier. Support levels appear at 26.05 and 25.81, both coinciding with previous consolidation areas and Fibonacci retracements.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20EMA and 50EMA, reinforcing the bullish momentum. For daily analysis, the 50DMA has been holding steady at 25.5–25.7 and may serve as a critical support. The 200DMA at 25.34 provides another layer of potential support. The MACD (12, 26, 9) is positive and trending upwards, indicating strong bullish momentum.

Volatility and Volume Patterns

Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, indicating rising volatility. The price closed near the upper band at 26.42, suggesting an overbought condition. Volume activity shows a clear confirmation of the price rally, with the final hour’s volume spiking to 2977.0, the highest of the session. No clear divergence between volume and price was observed, supporting the strength of the bullish breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

To proceed with a robust back-test, the correct ticker symbol is crucial. While the user requested analysis for “POLJPY,” the data source returned an error. To ensure accuracy, please confirm:
1. Is “POLJPY” the correct symbol in your data vendor (e.g., Binance, Kraken, or FX)?
2. Do you have a preferred data vendor to ensure symbol consistency?

Once confirmed, a MACD (12, 26, 9) strategy will be run from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-07, with Golden-Cross and Dead-Cross events identified for performance evaluation. The results will include full metrics and a visual equity curve.

The near-term outlook for POLJPY appears bullish, with the price pushing above key resistance and showing strong volume confirmation. However, traders should be cautious of potential profit-taking or pullbacks as the RSI moves into overbought territory. A consolidation phase or minor retest of 26.05–26.15 is a likely next step, offering opportunities for measured entries or exits.