Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) – 2025-10-09

• POLJPY opened at 36.56 and closed at 36.56 after a 24-hour range of 35.97–37.30.
• Strong downward momentum emerged post-37.30, with a bearish breakdown below 36.90.
• Volatility expanded, with volume spiking to 9,367.1 at 01:45 ET, confirming a key bearish reversal.
• RSI showed overbought levels early, followed by a sharp decline, suggesting bearish exhaustion.
• Fibonacci retracements indicate potential support at 36.2–36.6 as the market consolidates.

The POLJPY pair opened at 36.56 on 2025-1009 and closed at the same level at 12:00 ET, forming a neutral candle on the daily chart. The 24-hour range extended from a high of 37.30 to a low of 35.97, showing a volatile session with bearish pressure gaining strength in the second half. Total volume traded amounted to 93,631.3, with a notional turnover of 3,428,728.5 yen. The price action featured a significant bearish reversal on the 15-minute chart, with a large-volume candle at 01:45 ET confirming the breakdown below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at 36.2–36.6, with the 36.56 level acting as a temporary floor after the bearish breakdown. A large bearish engulfing pattern was observed during the 01:45–02:00 ET period, confirming the shift in sentiment. A doji appeared at 03:00 ET as buyers attempted a short-covering rally but failed to hold the 36.70 level. Resistance is now expected at 36.70–36.90, with further breaks to 37.30 acting as a psychological ceiling.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price crossed below the 20SMA and 50SMA late in the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20SMA was at 36.63, and the 50SMA was at 36.69, with the price now trending downward. On the daily chart, the 50DMA was at 36.68 and the 200DMA at 36.75, indicating that the pair is now trading below key long-term averages, suggesting a bearish bias over the next 48 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line at 01:45 ET and remained in negative territory, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed expanding bearish divergence, particularly in the 02:00–04:00 ET window. RSI peaked at 78.6 during the early session before dropping to 45.3 by the close, indicating overbought conditions early and moderate bearish pressure later. The oscillator now sits near the midpoint, with potential for a rebound or further bearish follow-through.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased during the 00:00–02:00 ET window. The upper band reached 37.35, while the lower band dropped to 35.88, with the price closing near the middle band. This suggests that volatility may now contract slightly, but the price remains within a bearish channel. A close below the lower band would confirm a breakout from the 36.6–37.30 consolidation range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 01:45 ET with a massive 9,367.1 units traded, confirming the breakdown at 36.49. Turnover increased in tandem with the price decline, suggesting strong selling pressure. Later in the session, volume diminished but showed spikes at 02:00 and 02:15 ET as buyers briefly tried to push the price back toward 36.70. The lack of follow-through buying indicates weak conviction from the bulls, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 35.97–37.30 range, the 38.2% level at 36.53 and the 61.8% level at 36.31 acted as key support levels. The price held at 36.53 before breaking down to 36.31, with a temporary bounce from 36.30–36.50 observed. These levels now serve as potential re-entry points for bears or short-term buyers. A test of the 35.97 level could trigger further bearish follow-through.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish reversal and strong volume confirmation at key Fibonacci and moving average levels, a backtest could be designed to enter short positions on a close below 36.53 with a stop above the 36.70–36.74 resistance zone. A target of 36.20–36.30 aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 36.30 low from earlier in the session. The strategy would aim to capture the continuation of bearish momentum while managing risk with a tight stop. Given the RSI divergence and MACD bearish divergence, this setup offers a favorable risk-reward profile for short-term traders in a volatile market.