Market Overview for POL/Yen (POLJPY) as of 2025-09-27

• POLJPY rose 1.8% over 24 hours with strong volume surges into the early morning.
• A bullish breakout above 33.46 suggests renewed buying interest.
• MACD turned positive while RSI edged into overbought territory.
• Volatility expanded, with a 33.75 high followed by a 33.22 retracement.
• On-balance volume supports the recent rally, confirming trend strength.

The POLJPY pair opened at 32.87 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET and closed at 33.31 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-27, reaching an intraday high of 33.75 and a low of 32.84. Total trading volume over the 24-hour window was 152,699.5, with a notional turnover (volume × close) of approximately 5,093,655.2.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a series of bullish engulfing patterns during the early hours of 2025-09-27, particularly between 02:30 and 05:30 ET, when the price moved from 33.21 to 33.51. A key support level appears to be forming around 33.22, where the price found a floor multiple times during the 24-hour window. A resistance level emerged near 33.50, where the price struggled to maintain gains and consolidated.

A long-bodied bullish candle at 05:30 ET (open: 33.41, close: 33.51) confirmed a breakout from a prior consolidation pattern. A doji formed at 09:15 ET (open: 33.41, close: 33.25), signaling indecision and the potential for a short-term pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending upward, with the 20-period MA currently above the 50-period, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. The price remains above both, indicating that the trend is intact and could continue unless a sharp reversal occurs.

On a daily basis, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages appear to be converging, and the 200-period MA acts as a key support. If the price closes above the 50-period MA for two consecutive days, this could trigger a stronger bullish signal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive in the early morning hours and has remained in bullish territory throughout much of the session, with the histogram expanding after the 02:30 ET breakout. This suggests that the uptrend is gaining momentum and could continue into the next 24-hour cycle.

The RSI moved into overbought territory after 06:00 ET, peaking at around 78, but did not immediately retrace. This could indicate strong conviction among buyers or the potential for a pullback. If the RSI remains above 60 for a sustained period, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 06:00 and 07:15 ET, indicating an increase in volatility. The price reached the upper band at 33.75 before retreating slightly. It has since consolidated near the middle band, suggesting a potential pause in the uptrend. A move above the upper band may confirm a continuation of the bullish move, while a retest of the lower band could offer a low-risk entry for longs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early morning hours (02:00–05:00 ET), with the largest spike occurring at 05:30 ET when the price moved from 33.41 to 33.51 on a volume of 1,573.3. This confirms strong buying interest during the breakout.

The notional turnover also increased in tandem with the volume, indicating that the price movement was not driven by low-liquidity trades. A divergence in volume and price was observed during the 09:30–10:00 ET period, where the price declined from 33.32 to 33.28 while volume remained below average. This could signal a potential exhaustion of short-term bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 24-hour swing from 32.84 to 33.75, the 61.8% level lies at around 33.49, where the price briefly held before retreating. This level could act as a short-term resistance. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement from a prior swing high is at 33.36, where the price has shown signs of consolidation. This level may become a key area to watch for potential continuation or reversal cues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong volume confirmation during the early morning breakout and the bullish engulfing pattern, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position on a confirmed close above 33.49 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). A stop-loss could be placed below the 33.22 support level, with a take-profit target at the 33.75 high. This strategy would aim to capture a continuation of the bullish momentum observed in the early session, while also managing risk with a defined stop.