Market Overview: POL/Yen Daily Price Action and Technical Indicators

• POLJPY opened at 37.23 and closed at 37.50, with a 24-hour high of 37.64 and low of 36.81.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near 37.44 and experienced a volatile drop into a support zone at 36.90–37.00.
• Volume surged during the 18:15–19:15 ET window, confirming a bearish breakdown followed by a retest.
• RSI hit oversold conditions below 30 early in the session, suggesting a potential reversal.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion, with price bouncing off the lower band and moving toward the middle.

POL/Yen (POLJPY) opened at 37.23 at 12:00 ET–1 on September 19, 2025, and closed at 37.50 at 12:00 ET on September 20, reaching a high of 37.64 and a low of 36.81. Total trading volume was 48,474.1, and turnover was ¥1,821,313.6 (calculated as volume × price). The session showed a pronounced bearish breakdown followed by a partial recovery, with key patterns and divergences visible in the candlestick structure.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a notable bearish breakdown from the 37.44 level early in the session, confirmed by a 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern. The 36.90–37.00 zone acted as a key support, with price bouncing back after reaching the 24-hour low at 36.81. A bullish harami appeared near 37.11, followed by a retest of the 37.33–37.43 consolidation area. A potential double-bottom structure is forming in the 36.88–37.05 range, which could signal a longer-term support zone. A doji appeared at the 37.58 level, indicating indecision and a possible pause in the upward move.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover early in the session, confirming the breakdown. However, a bullish crossover followed later in the day as price rebounded. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100 and 200-period MAs, indicating a mildly bullish trend. Price closed above the 50-period MA at 37.44, suggesting potential for further upward momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned bullish after midday, with a positive histogram suggesting momentum is building. RSI fell to 28 in the early session before climbing to 52 by close, signaling a potential short-term reversal. The oscillator has not yet reached overbought levels, but if the rally continues, 60–65 may be a short-term ceiling. A divergence appeared between RSI and price after 09:00 ET, suggesting caution in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakdown, with price testing the lower band at 36.88 before bouncing back. Price moved above the middle band during the afternoon and closed near the upper band at 37.58, indicating increased volatility and a strong bullish bias. A continuation above the 37.62 level would likely see the bands expand further, potentially setting up for a 38.2% Fibonacci target at 37.68.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 18:15–19:15 ET window, confirming the breakdown and retest of support. Turnover was consistent with the volume spike, showing no divergence. A sharp drop in volume occurred after 20:45 ET, coinciding with a period of consolidation. The final three hours saw a steady increase in both volume and turnover, aligning with the upward move from 37.16 to 37.64. This confirms strong conviction in the bullish move during the last part of the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 36.81–37.64 swing, the 38.2% retracement is at 37.36, the 50% at 37.22, and the 61.8% at 37.08. Price is currently testing the 38.2% level and could see a pullback toward 37.22 before resuming the upward trend. Daily Fibonacci levels from the 36.88–37.64 move suggest a potential target at 37.72 if the bullish momentum continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy focuses on short-term reversal patterns in conjunction with volume confirmation. Specifically, it looks for a bearish engulfing pattern followed by a retest of the breakdown level with strong volume. The 18:15–19:15 ET window meets these criteria, with a bearish engulfing pattern and a strong volume spike confirming the breakdown. A retest of the 37.00–37.11 level occurred later in the session, with volume supporting a potential reversal. This suggests that a short-term buy setup may have been present, with an initial target at the 37.33–37.43 consolidation area and a stop loss below 37.00. Over the next 24 hours, a break above 37.64 could test the 37.72 level, but a pullback to the 37.36–37.22 zone may be expected.