Market Overview for POL/Yen (2025-09-15)

• POLJPY opened at ¥40.19, surged to ¥40.69, then dropped to ¥38.06, closing at ¥38.21 at 12:00 ET.
• Volatility spiked mid-day, with a 15% drawdown from the intraday high.
• Strong volume confirmed key breakouts and breakdowns around ¥40.20 and ¥38.60.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions early, followed by oversold territory in the late session.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the sharp decline, signaling heightened risk.

POLJPY opened at ¥40.19 on 2025-09-14 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of ¥40.69 before declining to a low of ¥38.06 and closing at ¥38.21 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15. Total 24-hour volume was 156,528.9 units, and notional turnover reached ¥6,131,293. The pair experienced a pronounced bearish reversal from mid-session highs to late-day lows.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern for POLJPY shows a broad-based bearish reversal, with strong support forming around ¥38.20–38.40 and resistance previously established near ¥40.20–40.40. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the 08:15–08:30 ET window as prices fell from ¥39.60 to ¥38.97 amid heavy volume. A long-legged doji formed near ¥38.60, indicating indecision, followed by a strong breakdown to ¥38.06. These patterns suggest a high probability of continued bearish momentum in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price late in the session, confirming a bearish shift. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages intersected just above ¥39.50, while the 200-period MA offered a broader resistance at ¥40.30. These levels may serve as dynamic resistance zones to monitor in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into negative territory around 07:00 ET, with a bearish divergence forming as prices peaked while the oscillator remained lower. RSI bottomed around 20 in the late session, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a rebound, indicating a lack of near-term buying interest. Momentum appears to be firmly on the bearish side, with no clear signs of reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the decline from ¥40.69 to ¥38.06, reflecting increased volatility and bearish sentiment. Prices closed near the lower band, which currently sits at ¥38.20, suggesting potential support. A retest of this level may confirm its strength, but a break below it would open the door to further declines.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish reversal from ¥40.20 to ¥38.60 and again during the breakdown to ¥38.06, confirming the validity of the trend. The largest single candle in terms of volume (¥39.60–39.12) occurred during the 08:15–08:30 ET period with a turnover of ¥8,377.2. Notional turnover also showed a sharp increase during the 07:45–08:00 ET hour, aligning with the sharp drop from ¥40.06 to ¥39.42. These spikes indicate strong bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the ¥40.69 high to the ¥38.06 low suggest key levels at 38.2% (¥39.38), 61.8% (¥38.75), and the 100% level at ¥38.06. Prices currently hover near the 61.8% retracement level, which may act as a near-term support zone. A break below ¥38.75 could target ¥38.43 (78.6%) and potentially ¥38.06.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy would involve entering a short position when the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart (a death cross), and confirming with a bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing or piercing) and RSI below 50. Stop-loss could be placed at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, and take-profit at the 61.8% level. This approach could be tested with historical data to assess its effectiveness in volatile environments like the one seen on 2025-09-15.