Market Overview for POL/Tether (POLUSDT) – October 7, 2025

• POLUSDT fell 4.8% over 24 hours, closing at 0.2378 after forming bearish reversal patterns in late ET trading.
• Momentum weakened across the session, with RSI and MACD showing bearish divergence and a lack of bullish follow-through.
• Volatility spiked mid-day but collapsed in the final 6 hours as selling pressure overwhelmed buyers.
• Volume was uneven, with high-volume sell-offs below key levels and minimal bullish confirmation during retracements.
• Bollinger Bands tightened in the final 12 hours, suggesting potential for a breakout or breakdown from current ranges.

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at 0.2466 on October 6 at 12:00 ET and fell to a 24-hour low of 0.2362 before closing at 0.2378 at 12:00 ET the next day. The pair traded between 0.2362 and 0.2533, with a total volume of 35,290,199.1 and a notional turnover of approximately $8,389,444.04.

Structure formed around three key levels: 0.2505 (resistance), 0.2460 (support), and 0.2490 (pivot). A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.2505 in the early ET hours, followed by a long-legged doji at 0.2475 and a bearish harami at 0.2470, suggesting indecision and exhaustion on the buy side. The price action below 0.2450 showed increased bearish conviction, particularly in the 5-hour window from 14:00–19:00 ET.

MACD turned negative mid-day and remained in bear territory for the remainder of the session, while RSI dropped below 30 in the final 6 hours, signaling oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly from 12:00–18:00 ET, suggesting a potential breakout, though the actual move broke to the downside. The 15-minute 20/50 EMA crossed bearishly at 0.2475, reinforcing the downward trend.

Volume spiked near 0.2505 and 0.2490 but declined sharply below 0.2460, indicating a lack of follow-through buying. Turnover and price diverged in the last 4 hours, where price continued to fall while turnover volume decreased. Fibonacci retracements showed key levels at 0.2490 (38.2%), 0.2465 (50%), and 0.2440 (61.8%) as potential pivots for short-term reversals or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on bearish engulfing or doji patterns near resistance levels, with stop-loss placed just above the pattern’s high. Exit triggers are based on RSI crossing below 30 or a close below the 50-period EMA. This strategy appears well-aligned with today’s price action, particularly at 0.2505 and 0.2475. Given the confirmation of bearish momentum and oversold RSI, the strategy could have captured the majority of the 24-hour decline if executed around 18:00–20:00 ET. However, traders should be cautious about false breakouts in tight ranges and ensure proper risk management.