Market Overview for POL/Tether (POLUSDT) – October 4, 2025 (24-Hour)

• POLUSDT opened at $0.2424 and closed at $0.2353, with a 24-hour low of $0.2343 and high of $0.2453.
• Strong bearish momentum emerged, with volume spiking to $3.37 million as price broke key support levels.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions by 12:00 ET, while MACD turned negative, confirming a bearish trend.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened during the sell-off, with price closing near the lower band.
• A potential short-term rebound could form near $0.2360, but bearish bias remains strong below $0.2385.

Price and Volume Snapshot

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at $0.2424 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2353 on October 4 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.2453 and a low of $0.2343 during the period. The pair experienced a total traded volume of 7.44 million units and a notional turnover of approximately $2.08 million, reflecting elevated selling pressure during the sharp bearish move.

Structure & Formations

A strong bearish bias emerged during the 24-hour period, with POLUSDT breaking below a key support zone near $0.2390 and continuing lower to $0.2343. A long-legged bearish candle formed at $0.2360–$0.2407, followed by a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern that signaled a shift in sentiment. A short-term bounce from $0.2343 failed to hold above $0.2360, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were decisively breached during the sell-off, with price closing well below both. The 50-period MA on the daily chart also held as resistance at $0.2385–$0.2390, suggesting a continuation of bearish pressure. The MACD crossed below the zero line and showed a bearish divergence in the final hours of the period, while RSI entered the 20–30 oversold range by 12:00 ET.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly as Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, with price closing near the lower band at $0.2343. This suggests a continuation of bearish momentum unless a strong reversal candle forms above $0.2365. A contraction in the bands may follow the current expansion, but the current environment favors range compression rather than a reversal.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Volume spiked during the sharp drop below $0.2390, with a 15-minute candle at $0.2390–$0.2362 showing high volume and a large bearish close. Turnover increased to over $3.37 million, with bearish confirmation as price failed to retest $0.2390. A divergence in volume and price during the final hours suggested waning selling pressure, but this was not enough to reverse the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $0.2343 to $0.2453 shows key levels at 38.2% ($0.2403) and 61.8% ($0.2372). Price found temporary rejection near $0.2372 and $0.2365, but failed to hold above $0.2372, reinforcing a bearish outlook. A breakdown below $0.2343 could target the next Fibonacci level at $0.2327.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI conditions, a short-term long/short reversal strategy could be backtested. For example, a buy limit order at $0.2360 could be paired with a stop-loss at $0.2345 and a take-profit at $0.2375–$0.2380. Alternatively, a short position could be entered on a retest of $0.2375, with a stop above $0.2385 and a target at $0.2350. This aligns with the bearish structure and Fibonacci levels identified.