Market Overview: POL/Tether (POLUSDT) Daily Chart Analysis

• POL/Tether (POLUSDT) rose from 0.2351 to 0.2459 before consolidating amid elevated volume.
• Key resistance held near 0.2444–0.2451, while support appeared at 0.2390–0.2402 during pullbacks.
• MACD and RSI signaled overbought conditions mid-day, but a late dip suggested bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning rally, narrowing after 16:00 ET.
• Volume surged during the bullish move but fell sharply post 16:00 ET, indicating reduced conviction.

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at 0.2351 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.2459 by early afternoon, and closed at 0.2407 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 15.6 million, with a notional turnover of $3.7 million. The price action reflects a sharp rally followed by a gradual consolidation.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a strong bullish reversal pattern early in the session, with a high at 0.2459 followed by a bearish correction to 0.2402. A doji formed near 0.2407, suggesting indecision. Key support levels appear at 0.2390 and 0.2373, while resistance is seen near 0.2444 and 0.2459. The structure indicates potential for a retest of these levels in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages crossed above the price line in the morning, confirming the bullish bias. However, after 16:00 ET, the 20-period MA began to lag behind the price, indicating weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA supports the current price level, while the 100- and 200-period MAs remain below, suggesting long-term bearish sentiment may persist.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line surged into positive territory during the morning rally, peaking at 0.004 before diverging as the price corrected. The histogram showed a bearish crossover mid-afternoon. RSI climbed into overbought territory (above 70) before 15:00 ET, signaling a potential reversal. A sharp decline in RSI after 15:00 ET confirmed bearish momentum, though it remains above 50, suggesting the rally could resume if buyers re-enter.

Bollinger Bands

The price broke out of the upper band during the morning rally, reaching 0.2459. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the rally, indicating rising volatility. After 16:00 ET, the bands began to contract, with the price moving closer to the middle band. The narrowing suggests a period of consolidation and potential for another breakout or breakdown depending on volume and order flow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning rally, peaking at $0.2459 with a 15-minute turnover of $550,000. However, after 16:00 ET, volume dropped sharply, with turnover falling to less than $200,000 by 18:00 ET. This divergence between price and volume indicates weakening conviction among bulls. Turnover remains above average for this time of day, suggesting increased participation, albeit with mixed intent.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 0.2351 to 0.2459 shows key levels at 0.2422 (38.2%), 0.2410 (50%), and 0.2397 (61.8%). The price has found support near 0.2402–0.2407, aligning with the 61.8% retracement level. A close below 0.2390 may signal a deeper correction, while a rebound above 0.2422 could suggest a continuation of the rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position on a breakout above the 20-period moving average with confirmation via a bullish engulfing pattern, and exiting upon a bearish divergence in the MACD histogram. A stop-loss could be placed just below the nearest Fibonacci support level (0.2397), while a profit target might align with the 38.2% retracement level of the daily chart. This approach would test the market’s ability to maintain bullish momentum after a sharp reversal.