Market Overview: POL/Tether (POLUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• POLUSDT opened at 0.1718 and closed at 0.1684, declining amid bearish pressure and below key support levels.
• Total volume reached 52.5 million, but turnover remained muted, suggesting limited conviction in price action.
• A potential bearish reversal pattern emerged near the 0.1730 level, with price falling below 20-period MA.

POL/Tether Market Overview

On 2025-11-04, POLUSDT opened at 0.1718 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.1684 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.1744 and a low of 0.1636. The 24-hour volume totaled 52.5 million, while total turnover stood at approximately 8.5 billion USDT. Price action showed a distinct bearish slant, with price failing to hold above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart.

Structure & Formations

POLUSDT formed a bearish engulfing pattern around the 0.1730 level, confirming a potential reversal. Price later broke below key support at 0.1718, opening the door to further downside toward 0.1700. The 15-minute chart also showed a bearish flag pattern between 0.1690 and 0.1715, suggesting exhaustion in the short-term buyers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, POLUSDT closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits near 0.1735, while the 100-period and 200-period MAs remain higher, suggesting that a reversal to the mean may still be a distant possibility.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish bias, with both indicators trending lower. RSI fell to 42, a neutral zone, but the divergence between price and RSI suggests some caution. A close below 40 could indicate further oversold conditions and a possible short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the Bollinger Bands widened, with price closing near the lower band. This suggests a period of consolidation may follow, with potential for a bounce off the 0.1680 level. However, a sustained break below this level could trigger a larger correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked during the early morning hours in ET, coinciding with a sharp decline from 0.1714 to 0.1685. Despite the price drop, notional turnover remained relatively muted, signaling limited conviction in the move. A divergence between volume and price may indicate a potential reversal in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 0.1730–0.1650 swing, the 38.2% retracement is at 0.1692 and the 61.8% level is at 0.1707. Price is currently trading near the 38.2% level, with potential for a bounce or a continuation of the downtrend depending on the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the clear bearish signals on the 15-minute chart, including the bearish engulfing pattern and bearish divergence in RSI, evaluating the efficacy of a short strategy based on the “Bearish Engulfing” pattern makes logical sense. For this backtest, we suggest using option a: opening a short position at the next-day open following a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern and holding it for a 3-day window. This approach aligns with common pattern-based strategies and allows for a manageable exposure timeframe. We will use the daily close data for POLUSDT as the source. Once we have the pattern-dated list, we can proceed with the event-based backtest.